Biomaterial Database

Clinical versus actuarial prediction: a review of the literature. 1992

M C Marchese

Department of Psychology, Iowa State University, Ames 50011-3180.

Decisions made by psychologists can have considerable consequences on people's lives. Their decisions could be based on clinical judgment or empirically derived formulas. These two alternatives created a controversy concerning clinical and actuarial prediction. This controversy has been in existence for almost 70 years. During this time hundreds of articles have been published on this topic. This paper contains a review of the findings and issues on clinical versus actuarial prediction. The main conclusions are that (1) linear models are superior to other mathematical models of human judgment, (2) actuarial methods are more accurate than clinical prediction in many situations, (3) human judgment is flawed, and (4) actuarial methods are rarely employed in practice for a variety of reasons.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D007600	Judgment	The process of discovering or asserting an objective or intrinsic relation between two objects or concepts; a faculty or power that enables a person to make judgments; the process of bringing to light and asserting the implicit meaning of a concept; a critical evaluation of a person or situation.	Judgement,Judgements,Judgments
D008606	Mental Processes	Conceptual functions or thinking in all its forms.	Information Processing, Human,Human Information Processing
D011586	Psychology, Clinical	The branch of psychology concerned with psychological methods of recognizing and treating behavior disorders.	Clinical Psychology
D003661	Decision Support Techniques	Mathematical or statistical procedures used as aids in making a decision. They are frequently used in medical decision-making.	Decision Analysis,Decision Modeling,Models, Decision Support,Analysis, Decision,Decision Aids,Decision Support Technics,Aid, Decision,Aids, Decision,Analyses, Decision,Decision Aid,Decision Analyses,Decision Support Model,Decision Support Models,Decision Support Technic,Decision Support Technique,Model, Decision Support,Modeling, Decision,Technic, Decision Support,Technics, Decision Support,Technique, Decision Support,Techniques, Decision Support
D006801	Humans	Members of the species Homo sapiens.	Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000206	Actuarial Analysis	The application of probability and statistical methods to calculate the risk of occurrence of any event, such as onset of illness, recurrent disease, hospitalization, disability, or death. It may include calculation of the anticipated money costs of such events and of the premiums necessary to provide for payment of such costs.	Analysis, Actuarial,Actuarial Analyses,Analyses, Actuarial
D016014	Linear Models	Statistical models in which the value of a parameter for a given value of a factor is assumed to be equal to a + bx, where a and b are constants. The models predict a linear regression.	Linear Regression,Log-Linear Models,Models, Linear,Linear Model,Linear Regressions,Log Linear Models,Log-Linear Model,Model, Linear,Model, Log-Linear,Models, Log-Linear,Regression, Linear,Regressions, Linear