Connecting clinical and actuarial prediction with rule-based methods. 2015

Marjolein Fokkema, and Niels Smits, and Henk Kelderman, and Brenda W J H Penninx
Faculty of Psychology and Education, VU University Amsterdam.

Meta-analyses comparing the accuracy of clinical versus actuarial prediction have shown actuarial methods to outperform clinical methods, on average. However, actuarial methods are still not widely used in clinical practice, and there has been a call for the development of actuarial prediction methods for clinical practice. We argue that rule-based methods may be more useful than the linear main effect models usually employed in prediction studies, from a data and decision analytic as well as a practical perspective. In addition, decision rules derived with rule-based methods can be represented as fast and frugal trees, which, unlike main effects models, can be used in a sequential fashion, reducing the number of cues that have to be evaluated before making a prediction. We illustrate the usability of rule-based methods by applying RuleFit, an algorithm for deriving decision rules for classification and regression problems, to a dataset on prediction of the course of depressive and anxiety disorders from Penninx et al. (2011). The RuleFit algorithm provided a model consisting of 2 simple decision rules, requiring evaluation of only 2 to 4 cues. Predictive accuracy of the 2-rule model was very similar to that of a logistic regression model incorporating 20 predictor variables, originally applied to the dataset. In addition, the 2-rule model required, on average, evaluation of only 3 cues. Therefore, the RuleFit algorithm appears to be a promising method for creating decision tools that are less time consuming and easier to apply in psychological practice, and with accuracy comparable to traditional actuarial methods.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008432 Mathematical Computing Computer-assisted interpretation and analysis of various mathematical functions related to a particular problem. Statistical Computing,Computing, Statistical,Mathematic Computing,Statistical Programs, Computer Based,Computing, Mathematic,Computing, Mathematical,Computings, Mathematic,Computings, Mathematical,Computings, Statistical,Mathematic Computings,Mathematical Computings,Statistical Computings
D011594 Psychometrics Assessment of psychological variables by the application of mathematical procedures. Psychometric
D003661 Decision Support Techniques Mathematical or statistical procedures used as aids in making a decision. They are frequently used in medical decision-making. Decision Analysis,Decision Modeling,Models, Decision Support,Analysis, Decision,Decision Aids,Decision Support Technics,Aid, Decision,Aids, Decision,Analyses, Decision,Decision Aid,Decision Analyses,Decision Support Model,Decision Support Models,Decision Support Technic,Decision Support Technique,Model, Decision Support,Modeling, Decision,Technic, Decision Support,Technics, Decision Support,Technique, Decision Support,Techniques, Decision Support
D003663 Decision Trees A graphic device used in decision analysis, series of decision options are represented as branches (hierarchical). Decision Tree,Tree, Decision,Trees, Decision
D003863 Depression Depressive states usually of moderate intensity in contrast with MAJOR DEPRESSIVE DISORDER present in neurotic and psychotic disorders. Depressive Symptoms,Emotional Depression,Depression, Emotional,Depressive Symptom,Symptom, Depressive
D003865 Depressive Disorder, Major Disorder in which five (or more) of the following symptoms have been present during the same 2-week period and represent a change from previous functioning; at least one of the symptoms is either (1) depressed mood or (2) loss of interest or pleasure. Symptoms include: depressed mood most of the day, nearly every daily; markedly diminished interest or pleasure in activities most of the day, nearly every day; significant weight loss when not dieting or weight gain; Insomnia or hypersomnia nearly every day; psychomotor agitation or retardation nearly every day; fatigue or loss of energy nearly every day; feelings of worthlessness or excessive or inappropriate guilt; diminished ability to think or concentrate, or indecisiveness, nearly every day; or recurrent thoughts of death, recurrent suicidal ideation without a specific plan, or a suicide attempt. (DSM-5) Depression, Involutional,Major Depressive Disorder,Melancholia, Involutional,Paraphrenia, Involutional,Psychosis, Involutional,Depressive Disorders, Major,Involutional Depression,Involutional Melancholia,Involutional Paraphrenia,Involutional Paraphrenias,Involutional Psychoses,Involutional Psychosis,Major Depressive Disorders,Paraphrenias, Involutional,Psychoses, Involutional
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000206 Actuarial Analysis The application of probability and statistical methods to calculate the risk of occurrence of any event, such as onset of illness, recurrent disease, hospitalization, disability, or death. It may include calculation of the anticipated money costs of such events and of the premiums necessary to provide for payment of such costs. Analysis, Actuarial,Actuarial Analyses,Analyses, Actuarial
D000465 Algorithms A procedure consisting of a sequence of algebraic formulas and/or logical steps to calculate or determine a given task. Algorithm
D001008 Anxiety Disorders Persistent and disabling ANXIETY. Anxiety Neuroses,Anxiety States, Neurotic,Neuroses, Anxiety,Anxiety Disorder,Anxiety State, Neurotic,Disorder, Anxiety,Disorders, Anxiety,Neurotic Anxiety State,Neurotic Anxiety States,State, Neurotic Anxiety,States, Neurotic Anxiety

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