Biomaterial Database

A branching model for the spread of infectious animal diseases in varying environments. 2004

Pieter Trapman, and Ronald Meester, and Hans Heesterbeek

Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Yalelaan 7, 3584 Utrecht CL, The Netherlands. trapman@vet.uu.nl

This paper is concerned with a stochastic model, describing outbreaks of infectious diseases that have potentially great animal or human health consequences, and which can result in such severe economic losses that immediate sets of measures need to be taken to curb the spread. During an outbreak of such a disease, the environment that the infectious agent experiences is therefore changing due to the subsequent control measures taken. In our model, we introduce a general branching process in a changing (but not random) environment. With this branching process, we estimate the probability of extinction and the expected number of infected individuals for different control measures. We also use this branching process to calculate the generating function of the number of infected individuals at any given moment. The model and methods are designed using important infections of farmed animals, such as classical swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease and avian influenza as motivating examples, but have a wider application, for example to emerging human infections that lead to strict quarantine of cases and suspected cases (e.g. SARS) and contact and movement restrictions.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D008954	Models, Biological	Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.	Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D009426	Netherlands	Country located in EUROPE. It is bordered by the NORTH SEA, BELGIUM, and GERMANY. Constituent areas are Aruba, Curacao, and Sint Maarten, formerly included in the NETHERLANDS ANTILLES.	Holland,Kingdom of the Netherlands
D004196	Disease Outbreaks	Sudden increase in the incidence of a disease. The concept includes EPIDEMICS and PANDEMICS.	Outbreaks,Infectious Disease Outbreaks,Disease Outbreak,Disease Outbreak, Infectious,Disease Outbreaks, Infectious,Infectious Disease Outbreak,Outbreak, Disease,Outbreak, Infectious Disease,Outbreaks, Disease,Outbreaks, Infectious Disease
D004812	Epidemiologic Methods	Research techniques that focus on study designs and data gathering methods in human and animal populations.	Epidemiologic Method,Epidemiological Methods,Methods, Epidemiologic,Epidemiological Method,Method, Epidemiologic,Method, Epidemiological,Methods, Epidemiological
D006691	Classical Swine Fever	An acute, highly contagious disease affecting swine of all ages and caused by the CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER VIRUS. It has a sudden onset with high morbidity and mortality.	Hog Cholera,Swine Fever,Swine Fever, Classical,Cholera, Hog
D006692	Classical Swine Fever Virus	A species of the PESTIVIRUS genus causing exceedingly contagious and fatal hemorrhagic disease of swine.	Hog Cholera Virus,Swine Fever Virus,Swine Fever Virus, Classical,Cholera Virus, Hog
D000818	Animals	Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA.	Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D013269	Stochastic Processes	Processes that incorporate some element of randomness, used particularly to refer to a time series of random variables.	Process, Stochastic,Stochastic Process,Processes, Stochastic
D013552	Swine	Any of various animals that constitute the family Suidae and comprise stout-bodied, short-legged omnivorous mammals with thick skin, usually covered with coarse bristles, a rather long mobile snout, and small tail. Included are the genera Babyrousa, Phacochoerus (wart hogs), and Sus, the latter containing the domestic pig (see SUS SCROFA).	Phacochoerus,Pigs,Suidae,Warthogs,Wart Hogs,Hog, Wart,Hogs, Wart,Wart Hog