Biomaterial Database

A spatio-stochastic model for the spread of infectious diseases. 2022

Raeesa Manjoo-Docrat

University of Witwatersrand, 47 Rifle Range, Ridgeway, Johannesburg, South Africa. Electronic address: raeesa.docrat@wits.ac.za.

The spread of infectious diseases is a world-wide problem that has a greater impact on low-income countries. Mathematical modelling is a useful tool to better understand these diseases and to plan prevention and interventions. In this article, discrete-time binomial chain models, which are used for modelling the transmission of infectious diseases, have been extended by the addition of a spatial component. The spatial component is included in the function which represents the number of contacts that an individual makes. The spatio-stochastic model is derived to form three cases to match different modelling scenarios, namely: a model with only local transmission, a model with interaction between spatial units but no migration, and a model with interaction and migration between spatial units. Simulations are then used to compare the different models. The spatio-stochastic model is also demonstrated with an application to measles data. From this study, it can be seen that the type of model and inclusion of a spatial component plays an important role in the transmission of infectious diseases. The importance of choosing a model which best represents the dynamics and circumstances of an infectious disease is highlighted. The models presented in this paper allows flexibility which accommodate for a wide range of modelling cases.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D008457	Measles	A highly contagious infectious disease caused by MORBILLIVIRUS, common among children but also seen in the nonimmune of any age, in which the virus enters the respiratory tract via droplet nuclei and multiplies in the epithelial cells, spreading throughout the MONONUCLEAR PHAGOCYTE SYSTEM.	Rubeola
D008962	Models, Theoretical	Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.	Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D003141	Communicable Diseases	An illness caused by an infectious agent or its toxins that occurs through the direct or indirect transmission of the infectious agent or its products from an infected individual or via an animal, vector or the inanimate environment to a susceptible animal or human host.	Infectious Diseases,Communicable Disease,Disease, Communicable,Disease, Infectious,Diseases, Communicable,Diseases, Infectious,Infectious Disease
D006801	Humans	Members of the species Homo sapiens.	Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D015233	Models, Statistical	Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc.	Probabilistic Models,Statistical Models,Two-Parameter Models,Model, Statistical,Models, Binomial,Models, Polynomial,Statistical Model,Binomial Model,Binomial Models,Model, Binomial,Model, Polynomial,Model, Probabilistic,Model, Two-Parameter,Models, Probabilistic,Models, Two-Parameter,Polynomial Model,Polynomial Models,Probabilistic Model,Two Parameter Models,Two-Parameter Model