Extinction in relation to demographic and environmental stochasticity in age-structured models. 2005

Steinar Engen, and Russell Lande, and Bernt-Erik aether, and Henri Weimerskirch
Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University for Science and Technology, N-7491-Trondheim, Norway. steinaen@math.ntnu.no

The demographic variance of an age-structured population is defined. This parameter is further split into components generated by demographic stochasticity in each vital rate. The applicability of these parameters are investigated by checking how an age-structured population process can be approximated by a diffusion with only three parameters. These are the deterministic growth rate computed from the expected projection matrix and the environmental and demographic variances. We also consider age-structured populations where the fecundity at any stage is either zero or one, and there is neither environmental stochasticity nor dependence between individual fecundity and survival. In this case the demographic variance is uniquely determined by the vital rates defining the projection matrix. The demographic variance for a long-lived bird species, the wandering albatross in the southwestern part of the Indian Ocean, is estimated. We also compute estimates of the age-specific contributions to the total demographic variance from survival, fecundity and the covariance between survival and fecundity.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007195 Indian Ocean Islands Numerous islands in the Indian Ocean situated east of Madagascar, north to the Arabian Sea and east to Sri Lanka. Included are COMOROS (republic), MADAGASCAR (republic), Maldives (republic), MAURITIUS (parliamentary democracy), Pemba (administered by Tanzania), REUNION (a department of France), and SEYCHELLES (republic). Pemba,Cocos (Keeling) Islands
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D011157 Population Dynamics The pattern of any process, or the interrelationship of phenomena, which affects growth or change within a population. Malthusianism,Neomalthusianism,Demographic Aging,Demographic Transition,Optimum Population,Population Decrease,Population Pressure,Population Replacement,Population Theory,Residential Mobility,Rural-Urban Migration,Stable Population,Stationary Population,Aging, Demographic,Decrease, Population,Decreases, Population,Demographic Transitions,Dynamics, Population,Migration, Rural-Urban,Migrations, Rural-Urban,Mobilities, Residential,Mobility, Residential,Optimum Populations,Population Decreases,Population Pressures,Population Replacements,Population Theories,Population, Optimum,Population, Stable,Population, Stationary,Populations, Optimum,Populations, Stable,Populations, Stationary,Pressure, Population,Pressures, Population,Replacement, Population,Replacements, Population,Residential Mobilities,Rural Urban Migration,Rural-Urban Migrations,Stable Populations,Stationary Populations,Theories, Population,Theory, Population,Transition, Demographic,Transitions, Demographic
D003198 Computer Simulation Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes. Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D005260 Female Females
D000367 Age Factors Age as a constituent element or influence contributing to the production of a result. It may be applicable to the cause or the effect of a circumstance. It is used with human or animal concepts but should be differentiated from AGING, a physiological process, and TIME FACTORS which refers only to the passage of time. Age Reporting,Age Factor,Factor, Age,Factors, Age
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D001717 Birds Warm-blooded VERTEBRATES possessing FEATHERS and belonging to the class Aves. Aves,Bird
D013269 Stochastic Processes Processes that incorporate some element of randomness, used particularly to refer to a time series of random variables. Process, Stochastic,Stochastic Process,Processes, Stochastic

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