Extinction rate of a population under both demographic and environmental stochasticity. 1998

J M Halley, and Y Iwasa
Statistics Division, Mathematical Institute, University of St. Andrews, North Haugh, St. Andrews, Fife, KY16 9SS, United Kingdom. jmax@dcs.st-and.ac.uk

We examined the asymptotic rate of population extinction beta when the population experiences density-dependent population regulation, demographic stochasticity, and environmental stochasticity. We assume discrete-generation population dynamics, in which some parameters fluctuate between years. The fluctuation of parameters can be of any magnitude, including both fluctuation traditionally treated as diffusion processes and fluctuation from catastrophes within a single scheme. We develop a new approximate method of calculating the asymptotic rate of population extinction per year, beta=integralinfinity0 exp(-x) u(x) dx, where u(x) is the stationary distribution of adult population size from the continuous-population model including environmental stochasticity and population-regulation but neglecting demographic stochasticity. The method can be regarded as a perturbation expansion of the transition operator for population size. For several sets of population growth functions and probability distributions of environmental fluctuation, the stationary distributions can be calculated explicitly. Using these, we compare the predictions of this approximate method with that using a full transition operator and with the results of a direct Monte Carlo simulation. The approximate formula is accurate when the intrinsic rate of population increase is relatively large, though the magnitude of environmental fluctuation is also large. This approximation is complementary to the diffusion approximation.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011157 Population Dynamics The pattern of any process, or the interrelationship of phenomena, which affects growth or change within a population. Malthusianism,Neomalthusianism,Demographic Aging,Demographic Transition,Optimum Population,Population Decrease,Population Pressure,Population Replacement,Population Theory,Residential Mobility,Rural-Urban Migration,Stable Population,Stationary Population,Aging, Demographic,Decrease, Population,Decreases, Population,Demographic Transitions,Dynamics, Population,Migration, Rural-Urban,Migrations, Rural-Urban,Mobilities, Residential,Mobility, Residential,Optimum Populations,Population Decreases,Population Pressures,Population Replacements,Population Theories,Population, Optimum,Population, Stable,Population, Stationary,Populations, Optimum,Populations, Stable,Populations, Stationary,Pressure, Population,Pressures, Population,Replacement, Population,Replacements, Population,Residential Mobilities,Rural Urban Migration,Rural-Urban Migrations,Stable Populations,Stationary Populations,Theories, Population,Theory, Population,Transition, Demographic,Transitions, Demographic
D003710 Demography Statistical interpretation and description of a population with reference to distribution, composition, or structure. Demographer,Demographic,Demographic and Health Survey,Population Distribution,Accounting, Demographic,Analyses, Demographic,Analyses, Multiregional,Analysis, Period,Brass Technic,Brass Technique,Demographers,Demographic Accounting,Demographic Analysis,Demographic Factor,Demographic Factors,Demographic Impact,Demographic Impacts,Demographic Survey,Demographic Surveys,Demographic and Health Surveys,Demographics,Demography, Historical,Demography, Prehistoric,Factor, Demographic,Factors, Demographic,Family Reconstitution,Historical Demography,Impact, Demographic,Impacts, Demographic,Multiregional Analysis,Period Analysis,Population Spatial Distribution,Prehistoric Demography,Reverse Survival Method,Stable Population Method,Survey, Demographic,Surveys, Demographic,Analyses, Period,Analysis, Demographic,Analysis, Multiregional,Demographic Analyses,Demographies, Historical,Demographies, Prehistoric,Distribution, Population,Distribution, Population Spatial,Distributions, Population,Distributions, Population Spatial,Family Reconstitutions,Historical Demographies,Method, Reverse Survival,Method, Stable Population,Methods, Reverse Survival,Methods, Stable Population,Multiregional Analyses,Period Analyses,Population Distributions,Population Methods, Stable,Population Spatial Distributions,Prehistoric Demographies,Reconstitution, Family,Reconstitutions, Family,Reverse Survival Methods,Spatial Distribution, Population,Spatial Distributions, Population,Stable Population Methods,Technic, Brass,Technique, Brass
D004777 Environment The external elements and conditions which surround, influence, and affect the life and development of an organism or population. Environmental Impact,Environmental Impacts,Impact, Environmental,Impacts, Environmental,Environments
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D013269 Stochastic Processes Processes that incorporate some element of randomness, used particularly to refer to a time series of random variables. Process, Stochastic,Stochastic Process,Processes, Stochastic
D015233 Models, Statistical Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc. Probabilistic Models,Statistical Models,Two-Parameter Models,Model, Statistical,Models, Binomial,Models, Polynomial,Statistical Model,Binomial Model,Binomial Models,Model, Binomial,Model, Polynomial,Model, Probabilistic,Model, Two-Parameter,Models, Probabilistic,Models, Two-Parameter,Polynomial Model,Polynomial Models,Probabilistic Model,Two Parameter Models,Two-Parameter Model

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