Modeling the use of triple combination therapy in five countries: nevirapine, Zidovudine, and Didanosine. 2000

A K Biddle, and K N Simpson
Department of Health Policy and Administration, School of Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA. Andrea_Biddle@unc.edu

OBJECTIVE In this study, we modify previously published models to estimate the short- and long-term consequences of nevirapine triple combination therapy use in five developed countries. Current pharmacoeconomic practice requires the de novo model development for each new therapy comparison. This approach is lengthy and costly, and it may yield models with very different structures. Standardized, detailed disclosure of model assumptions and parameters makes it possible to recycle published models with minor structural modifications to examine the efficiency of therapies based on new trial data. METHODS Two well-publicized models of HIV therapy are modified to fit new trial data comparing double and triple combination therapy with nevirapine; model parameters are adjusted to represent clinical practice and cost structure in five countries. A short-term model uses trial data from advanced-stage patients to estimate first-year costs and consequences. A long-term model uses data from antiretroviral-naïve patients to estimate long-term cost-effectiveness. RESULTS During the first year, for each 100 individuals treated with nevirapine triple combination therapy, 2.7 deaths and 30.8-31.4 opportunistic disease events would be averted compared to employing dual therapy. Additionally, 61% to 142% of the first-year costs of nevirapine therapy would be offset by other medical care costs savings [FF19,749, DM3,778, 3334 (x1000) lire, 293 (x1000) ptas, and US $3,569]. Compared to dual combination therapy, nevirapine triple combination therapy is predicted to yield incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (discounted at 3%) of FF101,057, DM30,709, 28,066 (x1000) lire, 1294 (x1000) ptas, and US $14,338. CONCLUSIONS Published, well-constructed, and documented cost-effectiveness models can be reused to estimate the economic impact of therapies for HIV disease. Such models can also be used to provide insight into the factors that affect efficiency across countries. Our use of clinical trial data on nevirapine, together with published HIV economic models, provides support for the hypothesis that nevirapine is cost-effective under the cost structures of five developed countries.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D003362 Cost-Benefit Analysis A method of comparing the cost of a program with its expected benefits in dollars (or other currency). The benefit-to-cost ratio is a measure of total return expected per unit of money spent. This analysis generally excludes consideration of factors that are not measured ultimately in economic terms. In contrast a cost effectiveness in general compares cost with qualitative outcomes. Cost and Benefit,Cost-Benefit Data,Benefits and Costs,Cost Benefit,Cost Benefit Analysis,Cost-Utility Analysis,Costs and Benefits,Economic Evaluation,Marginal Analysis,Analyses, Cost Benefit,Analysis, Cost Benefit,Analysis, Cost-Benefit,Analysis, Cost-Utility,Analysis, Marginal,Benefit and Cost,Cost Benefit Analyses,Cost Benefit Data,Cost Utility Analysis,Cost-Benefit Analyses,Cost-Utility Analyses,Data, Cost-Benefit,Economic Evaluations,Evaluation, Economic,Marginal Analyses
D004359 Drug Therapy, Combination Therapy with two or more separate preparations given for a combined effect. Combination Chemotherapy,Polychemotherapy,Chemotherapy, Combination,Combination Drug Therapy,Drug Polytherapy,Therapy, Combination Drug,Chemotherapies, Combination,Combination Chemotherapies,Combination Drug Therapies,Drug Polytherapies,Drug Therapies, Combination,Polychemotherapies,Polytherapies, Drug,Polytherapy, Drug,Therapies, Combination Drug
D005060 Europe The continent north of AFRICA, west of ASIA and east of the ATLANTIC OCEAN. Northern Europe,Southern Europe,Western Europe
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D013534 Survival Continuance of life or existence especially under adverse conditions; includes methods and philosophy of survival.
D014481 United States A country in NORTH AMERICA between CANADA and MEXICO.
D015215 Zidovudine A dideoxynucleoside compound in which the 3'-hydroxy group on the sugar moiety has been replaced by an azido group. This modification prevents the formation of phosphodiester linkages which are needed for the completion of nucleic acid chains. The compound is a potent inhibitor of HIV replication, acting as a chain-terminator of viral DNA during reverse transcription. It improves immunologic function, partially reverses the HIV-induced neurological dysfunction, and improves certain other clinical abnormalities associated with AIDS. Its principal toxic effect is dose-dependent suppression of bone marrow, resulting in anemia and leukopenia. AZT (Antiviral),Azidothymidine,3'-Azido-2',3'-Dideoxythymidine,3'-Azido-3'-deoxythymidine,AZT Antiviral,AZT, Antiviral,BW A509U,BWA-509U,Retrovir,3' Azido 2',3' Dideoxythymidine,3' Azido 3' deoxythymidine,Antiviral AZT,BWA 509U,BWA509U
D015658 HIV Infections Includes the spectrum of human immunodeficiency virus infections that range from asymptomatic seropositivity, thru AIDS-related complex (ARC), to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). HTLV-III Infections,HTLV-III-LAV Infections,T-Lymphotropic Virus Type III Infections, Human,HIV Coinfection,Coinfection, HIV,Coinfections, HIV,HIV Coinfections,HIV Infection,HTLV III Infections,HTLV III LAV Infections,HTLV-III Infection,HTLV-III-LAV Infection,Infection, HIV,Infection, HTLV-III,Infection, HTLV-III-LAV,Infections, HIV,Infections, HTLV-III,Infections, HTLV-III-LAV,T Lymphotropic Virus Type III Infections, Human
D016049 Didanosine A dideoxynucleoside compound in which the 3'-hydroxy group on the sugar moiety has been replaced by a hydrogen. This modification prevents the formation of phosphodiester linkages which are needed for the completion of nucleic acid chains. Didanosine is a potent inhibitor of HIV replication, acting as a chain-terminator of viral DNA by binding to reverse transcriptase; ddI is then metabolized to dideoxyadenosine triphosphate, its putative active metabolite. 2',3'-Dideoxyinosine,Dideoxyinosine,ddI (Antiviral),NSC-612049,Videx,2',3' Dideoxyinosine,NSC 612049,NSC612049
D017059 Models, Econometric The application of mathematical formulas and statistical techniques to the testing and quantifying of economic theories and the solution of economic problems. Econometric Models,Econometric Model,Model, Econometric

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