Optimal and minimax three-stage designs for phase II oncology clinical trials. 2008

Kun Chen, and Michael Shan
Global Biometric Science, Pharmaceutical Research Institute, Bristol Myers Squibb Company, 5 Research Parkway, Wallingford, CT 06492, USA. kun.chen@bms.com

The common objective of oncology phase II trials is to evaluate the anti-tumor activity of a new agent and to determine whether the new drug warrants further investigation. For cancer drugs that significantly shrink tumors, response (CR and PR) rate is usually the primary endpoint in cancer phase II trials for testing H(0): P<or=P(0) vs H(1): P>or=P(1), where P(0) and P(1) are response rates which does not or does warrant further investigation given the rate of false positive (alpha) and false negative (beta). Multiple-stage designs including two-stage and three-stage have been developed by several authors. For example, Simon's optimal two-stage design [Simon R. Optimal two-stage designs for phase II clinical trials. Control Clin Trials 1989;10:1-10], Ensign et al. optimal three-stage design with restriction at the first stage [Ensign LG, Gehan EA, Kamen DS, Thall PF. An optimal three-stage design for phase II clinical trials. Stat Med 1994;13:1727-1736], Chen's optimal three-stage design without any restriction [Chen TT. Optimal three-stage designs for phase II clinical trials. Stat Med 1997;16:2701-2711], etc. However, all the above designs only early terminate a trial due to lack of activity of the study drug. Fleming's multiple-stage design [Fleming TR. One-sample multiple testing procedure for phase II clinical trials. Biometrics 1982;38:143-151] allows early stopping for either sufficient activity or lack of activity. But his design does not attempt to optimize its efficiency. We extend Chen's [Chen TT. Optimal three-stage designs for phase II clinical trials Stat Med 1997;16:2701-2711] design and propose an optimal and a minimax design for three-stage cancer phase II trials which allows early stopping under both hypotheses. The design is optimal in the sense that the average sample number (ASN) is minimized under P=P(0). The minimax design minimizes the maximal sample size (N) and then given this value of N minimizes the average sample number under P=P(0).

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008495 Medical Oncology A subspecialty of internal medicine concerned with the study of neoplasms. Oncology, Medical,Clinical Oncology,Oncology, Clinical
D011336 Probability The study of chance processes or the relative frequency characterizing a chance process. Probabilities
D012107 Research Design A plan for collecting and utilizing data so that desired information can be obtained with sufficient precision or so that an hypothesis can be tested properly. Experimental Design,Data Adjustment,Data Reporting,Design, Experimental,Designs, Experimental,Error Sources,Experimental Designs,Matched Groups,Methodology, Research,Problem Formulation,Research Methodology,Research Proposal,Research Strategy,Research Technics,Research Techniques,Scoring Methods,Adjustment, Data,Adjustments, Data,Data Adjustments,Design, Research,Designs, Research,Error Source,Formulation, Problem,Formulations, Problem,Group, Matched,Groups, Matched,Matched Group,Method, Scoring,Methods, Scoring,Problem Formulations,Proposal, Research,Proposals, Research,Reporting, Data,Research Designs,Research Proposals,Research Strategies,Research Technic,Research Technique,Scoring Method,Source, Error,Sources, Error,Strategies, Research,Strategy, Research,Technic, Research,Technics, Research,Technique, Research,Techniques, Research
D003627 Data Interpretation, Statistical Application of statistical procedures to analyze specific observed or assumed facts from a particular study. Data Analysis, Statistical,Data Interpretations, Statistical,Interpretation, Statistical Data,Statistical Data Analysis,Statistical Data Interpretation,Analyses, Statistical Data,Analysis, Statistical Data,Data Analyses, Statistical,Interpretations, Statistical Data,Statistical Data Analyses,Statistical Data Interpretations
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D017322 Clinical Trials, Phase II as Topic Works about studies that are usually controlled to assess the effectiveness and dosage (if appropriate) of diagnostic, therapeutic, or prophylactic drugs, devices, or techniques. These studies are performed on several hundred volunteers, including a limited number of patients with the target disease or disorder, and last about two years. This concept includes phase II studies conducted in both the U.S. and in other countries. Drug Evaluation, FDA Phase 2 as Topic,Drug Evaluation, FDA Phase II as Topic,Evaluation Studies, FDA Phase 2 as Topic,Evaluation Studies, FDA Phase II as Topic
D018401 Sample Size The number of units (persons, animals, patients, specified circumstances, etc.) in a population to be studied. The sample size should be big enough to have a high likelihood of detecting a true difference between two groups. (From Wassertheil-Smoller, Biostatistics and Epidemiology, 1990, p95) Sample Sizes,Size, Sample,Sizes, Sample

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