An optimal three-stage design for phase II clinical trials. 1994

L G Ensign, and E A Gehan, and D S Kamen, and P F Thall
Department of Biomathematics, University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston 77030.

A phase II clinical trial in cancer therapeutics is usually a single-arm study to determine whether an experimental treatment (E) holds sufficient promise to warrant further testing. When the criterion of treatment efficacy is a binary endpoint (response/no response) with probability of response p, we propose a three-stage optimal design for testing H0: p < or = p0 versus H1: p > or = p1, where p1 and p0 are response rates such that E does or does not merit further testing at given levels of statistical significance (alpha) and power (1--beta). The proposed design is essentially a combination of earlier proposals by Gehan and Simon. The design stops with rejection of H1 at stage 1 when there is an initial moderately long run of consecutive treatment failures; otherwise there is continuation to stage 2 and (possibly) stage 3 which have decision rules analogous to those in stages 1 and 2 of Simon's design. Thus, rejection of H1 is possible at any stage, but acceptance only at the final stage. The design is optimal in the sense that expected sample size is minimized when p = p0, subject to the practical constraint that the minimum stage 1 sample size is at least 5. The proposed design has greatest utility when the true response rate of E is small, it is desirable to stop early if there is a moderately long run of early treatment failures, and it is practical to implement a three-stage design. Compared to Simon's optimal two-stage design, the optimal three-stage design has the following features: stage 1 is the same size or smaller and has the possibility of stopping earlier when 0 successes are observed; the expected sample size under the null hypothesis is smaller; stages 1 and 2 generally have more patients than stage 1 of the two-stage design, but a higher probability of early termination under H0; and the total sample size and criteria for rejection of H1 at stage 3 are similar to the corresponding values at the end of stage 2 in the two-stage optimal design.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D009369 Neoplasms New abnormal growth of tissue. Malignant neoplasms show a greater degree of anaplasia and have the properties of invasion and metastasis, compared to benign neoplasms. Benign Neoplasm,Cancer,Malignant Neoplasm,Tumor,Tumors,Benign Neoplasms,Malignancy,Malignant Neoplasms,Neoplasia,Neoplasm,Neoplasms, Benign,Cancers,Malignancies,Neoplasias,Neoplasm, Benign,Neoplasm, Malignant,Neoplasms, Malignant
D011336 Probability The study of chance processes or the relative frequency characterizing a chance process. Probabilities
D012107 Research Design A plan for collecting and utilizing data so that desired information can be obtained with sufficient precision or so that an hypothesis can be tested properly. Experimental Design,Data Adjustment,Data Reporting,Design, Experimental,Designs, Experimental,Error Sources,Experimental Designs,Matched Groups,Methodology, Research,Problem Formulation,Research Methodology,Research Proposal,Research Strategy,Research Technics,Research Techniques,Scoring Methods,Adjustment, Data,Adjustments, Data,Data Adjustments,Design, Research,Designs, Research,Error Source,Formulation, Problem,Formulations, Problem,Group, Matched,Groups, Matched,Matched Group,Method, Scoring,Methods, Scoring,Problem Formulations,Proposal, Research,Proposals, Research,Reporting, Data,Research Designs,Research Proposals,Research Strategies,Research Technic,Research Technique,Scoring Method,Source, Error,Sources, Error,Strategies, Research,Strategy, Research,Technic, Research,Technics, Research,Technique, Research,Techniques, Research
D003627 Data Interpretation, Statistical Application of statistical procedures to analyze specific observed or assumed facts from a particular study. Data Analysis, Statistical,Data Interpretations, Statistical,Interpretation, Statistical Data,Statistical Data Analysis,Statistical Data Interpretation,Analyses, Statistical Data,Analysis, Statistical Data,Data Analyses, Statistical,Interpretations, Statistical Data,Statistical Data Analyses,Statistical Data Interpretations
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D016896 Treatment Outcome Evaluation undertaken to assess the results or consequences of management and procedures used in combating disease in order to determine the efficacy, effectiveness, safety, and practicability of these interventions in individual cases or series. Rehabilitation Outcome,Treatment Effectiveness,Clinical Effectiveness,Clinical Efficacy,Patient-Relevant Outcome,Treatment Efficacy,Effectiveness, Clinical,Effectiveness, Treatment,Efficacy, Clinical,Efficacy, Treatment,Outcome, Patient-Relevant,Outcome, Rehabilitation,Outcome, Treatment,Outcomes, Patient-Relevant,Patient Relevant Outcome,Patient-Relevant Outcomes
D017322 Clinical Trials, Phase II as Topic Works about studies that are usually controlled to assess the effectiveness and dosage (if appropriate) of diagnostic, therapeutic, or prophylactic drugs, devices, or techniques. These studies are performed on several hundred volunteers, including a limited number of patients with the target disease or disorder, and last about two years. This concept includes phase II studies conducted in both the U.S. and in other countries. Drug Evaluation, FDA Phase 2 as Topic,Drug Evaluation, FDA Phase II as Topic,Evaluation Studies, FDA Phase 2 as Topic,Evaluation Studies, FDA Phase II as Topic
D018401 Sample Size The number of units (persons, animals, patients, specified circumstances, etc.) in a population to be studied. The sample size should be big enough to have a high likelihood of detecting a true difference between two groups. (From Wassertheil-Smoller, Biostatistics and Epidemiology, 1990, p95) Sample Sizes,Size, Sample,Sizes, Sample

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