Spread of anti-malarial drug resistance: mathematical model with implications for ACT drug policies. 2008

Wirichada Pongtavornpinyo, and Shunmay Yeung, and Ian M Hastings, and Arjen M Dondorp, and Nicholas P J Day, and Nicholas J White
Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand. pan@tropmedres.ac

BACKGROUND Most malaria-endemic countries are implementing a change in anti-malarial drug policy to artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). The impact of different drug choices and implementation strategies is uncertain. Data from many epidemiological studies in different levels of malaria endemicity and in areas with the highest prevalence of drug resistance like borders of Thailand are certainly valuable. Formulating an appropriate dynamic data-driven model is a powerful predictive tool for exploring the impact of these strategies quantitatively. METHODS A comprehensive model was constructed incorporating important epidemiological and biological factors of human, mosquito, parasite and treatment. The iterative process of developing the model, identifying data needed, and parameterization has been taken to strongly link the model to the empirical evidence. The model provides quantitative measures of outcomes, such as malaria prevalence/incidence and treatment failure, and illustrates the spread of resistance in low and high transmission settings. The model was used to evaluate different anti-malarial policy options focusing on ACT deployment. RESULTS The model predicts robustly that in low transmission settings drug resistance spreads faster than in high transmission settings, and treatment failure is the main force driving the spread of drug resistance. In low transmission settings, ACT slows the spread of drug resistance to a partner drug, especially at high coverage rates. This effect decreases exponentially with increasing delay in deploying the ACT and decreasing rates of coverage. In the high transmission settings, however, drug resistance is driven by the proportion of the human population with a residual drug level, which gives resistant parasites some survival advantage. The spread of drug resistance could be slowed down by controlling presumptive drug use and avoiding the use of combination therapies containing drugs with mismatched half-lives, together with reducing malaria transmission through vector control measures. CONCLUSIONS This paper has demonstrated the use of a comprehensive mathematical model to describe malaria transmission and the spread of drug resistance. The model is strongly linked to the empirical evidence obtained from extensive data available from various sources. This model can be a useful tool to inform the design of treatment policies, particularly at a time when ACT has been endorsed by WHO as first-line treatment for falciparum malaria worldwide.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007783 Lactones Cyclic esters of hydroxy carboxylic acids, containing a 1-oxacycloalkan-2-one structure. Large cyclic lactones of over a dozen atoms are MACROLIDES. Lactone
D008288 Malaria A protozoan disease caused in humans by four species of the PLASMODIUM genus: PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM; PLASMODIUM VIVAX; PLASMODIUM OVALE; and PLASMODIUM MALARIAE; and transmitted by the bite of an infected female mosquito of the genus ANOPHELES. Malaria is endemic in parts of Asia, Africa, Central and South America, Oceania, and certain Caribbean islands. It is characterized by extreme exhaustion associated with paroxysms of high FEVER; SWEATING; shaking CHILLS; and ANEMIA. Malaria in ANIMALS is caused by other species of plasmodia. Marsh Fever,Plasmodium Infections,Remittent Fever,Infections, Plasmodium,Paludism,Fever, Marsh,Fever, Remittent,Infection, Plasmodium,Plasmodium Infection
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D010961 Plasmodium A genus of protozoa that comprise the malaria parasites of mammals. Four species infect humans (although occasional infections with primate malarias may occur). These are PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM; PLASMODIUM MALARIAE; PLASMODIUM OVALE, and PLASMODIUM VIVAX. Species causing infection in vertebrates other than man include: PLASMODIUM BERGHEI; PLASMODIUM CHABAUDI; P. vinckei, and PLASMODIUM YOELII in rodents; P. brasilianum, PLASMODIUM CYNOMOLGI; and PLASMODIUM KNOWLESI in monkeys; and PLASMODIUM GALLINACEUM in chickens. Plasmodiums
D004351 Drug Resistance Diminished or failed response of an organism, disease or tissue to the intended effectiveness of a chemical or drug. It should be differentiated from DRUG TOLERANCE which is the progressive diminution of the susceptibility of a human or animal to the effects of a drug, as a result of continued administration. Resistance, Drug
D004359 Drug Therapy, Combination Therapy with two or more separate preparations given for a combined effect. Combination Chemotherapy,Polychemotherapy,Chemotherapy, Combination,Combination Drug Therapy,Drug Polytherapy,Therapy, Combination Drug,Chemotherapies, Combination,Combination Chemotherapies,Combination Drug Therapies,Drug Polytherapies,Drug Therapies, Combination,Polychemotherapies,Polytherapies, Drug,Polytherapy, Drug,Therapies, Combination Drug
D006291 Health Policy Decisions, usually developed by government policymakers, for determining present and future objectives pertaining to the health care system. Health Care Policies,Health Policies,Healthcare Policy,National Health Policy,Care Policies, Health,Health Care Policy,Health Policy, National,Healthcare Policies,National Health Policies,Policies, Health,Policies, Health Care,Policies, Healthcare,Policy, Health,Policy, Health Care,Policy, Healthcare
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D000962 Antimalarials Agents used in the treatment of malaria. They are usually classified on the basis of their action against plasmodia at different stages in their life cycle in the human. (From AMA, Drug Evaluations Annual, 1992, p1585) Anti-Malarial,Antimalarial,Antimalarial Agent,Antimalarial Drug,Anti-Malarials,Antimalarial Agents,Antimalarial Drugs,Agent, Antimalarial,Agents, Antimalarial,Anti Malarial,Anti Malarials,Drug, Antimalarial,Drugs, Antimalarial

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