Biomaterial Database

A mathematical model of a heroin epidemic: implications for control policies. 1979

D R Mackintosh, and G T Stewart

An exponential model based on the infectious disease model of Kermack and McKendrick has been simplified to illustrate how the use of heroin spreads in epidemic fashion. A numerical simulation is arranged to show how the dynamics of spread are influenced by the original number of users, rates of conversion, and time of removal from the drug scene of those secondarily affected. The spread is significantly increased by small increases of those originally affected, in which case reduction of spread requires a large increase in rate of removal. The model indicates a strategy for intervention which is discussed in relation to policies for control of drug abuse.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D008433	Mathematics	The deductive study of shape, quantity, and dependence. (From McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed)	Mathematic
D008962	Models, Theoretical	Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.	Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D004196	Disease Outbreaks	Sudden increase in the incidence of a disease. The concept includes EPIDEMICS and PANDEMICS.	Outbreaks,Infectious Disease Outbreaks,Disease Outbreak,Disease Outbreak, Infectious,Disease Outbreaks, Infectious,Infectious Disease Outbreak,Outbreak, Disease,Outbreak, Infectious Disease,Outbreaks, Disease,Outbreaks, Infectious Disease
D004335	Drug and Narcotic Control	Control of drug and narcotic use by international agreement, or by institutional systems for handling prescribed drugs. This includes regulations concerned with the manufacturing, dispensing, approval (DRUG APPROVAL), and marketing of drugs.	Drug Regulations,Narcotic Control,Pharmaceutical Policy,Drug Control,Narcotic and Drug Control,Pharmaceutic Policy,Control, Drug,Control, Narcotic,Controls, Drug,Controls, Narcotic,Drug Controls,Drug Regulation,Narcotic Controls,Pharmaceutical Policies,Policies, Pharmaceutical,Policy, Pharmaceutical,Regulation, Drug,Regulations, Drug
D006556	Heroin Dependence	Strong dependence or addiction, both physiological and emotional, upon HEROIN.	Heroin Abuse,Heroin Addiction,Heroin Smoking,Abuse, Heroin,Addiction, Heroin,Dependence, Heroin,Heroin Smokings,Smoking, Heroin
D006801	Humans	Members of the species Homo sapiens.	Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D012606	Scotland	The most northerly of the four countries of the United Kingdom, occupying about one-third of the island of Great Britain. The capital is Edinburgh.
D014481	United States	A country in NORTH AMERICA between CANADA and MEXICO.