Where next? 2009

Malcolm Potts
Bixby Center, Population, Health and Sustainability, University of California, University Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA. pottsmalcolm@gmail.com

This paper provides a personal perspective on the rich discussions at the Bixby Forum. The size, rate of growth and age structure of the human population interact with many other key factors, from environmental change to governance. While the details of future interactions are sometimes difficult to predict, taken together they pose sombre threats to a socially and economically sustainable future for the rich and to any realistic possibility of lifting the world's bottom two billion people out of poverty. Adaptive changes will be needed to cope with an ageing population in countries with low fertility or below, but these are achievable. More worrying, continued rapid population growth in many of the least developed countries could lead to hunger, a failure of education to keep pace with growing numbers, and conflict. The assumption that the demographic transition from high to low birth rates occurs as a result of exogenous social and economic forces is being replaced by a clearer understanding of the many barriers that separate women from the knowledge and technologies they need to manage their childbearing within a human rights framework. The forum ended with a clear consensus that much more emphasis needs to be given to meeting the need for family planning and to investing in education.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011157 Population Dynamics The pattern of any process, or the interrelationship of phenomena, which affects growth or change within a population. Malthusianism,Neomalthusianism,Demographic Aging,Demographic Transition,Optimum Population,Population Decrease,Population Pressure,Population Replacement,Population Theory,Residential Mobility,Rural-Urban Migration,Stable Population,Stationary Population,Aging, Demographic,Decrease, Population,Decreases, Population,Demographic Transitions,Dynamics, Population,Migration, Rural-Urban,Migrations, Rural-Urban,Mobilities, Residential,Mobility, Residential,Optimum Populations,Population Decreases,Population Pressures,Population Replacements,Population Theories,Population, Optimum,Population, Stable,Population, Stationary,Populations, Optimum,Populations, Stable,Populations, Stationary,Pressure, Population,Pressures, Population,Replacement, Population,Replacements, Population,Residential Mobilities,Rural Urban Migration,Rural-Urban Migrations,Stable Populations,Stationary Populations,Theories, Population,Theory, Population,Transition, Demographic,Transitions, Demographic
D011640 Public Policy A course or method of action selected, usually by a government, from among alternatives to guide and determine present and future decisions. Social Policy,Affirmative Action,Migration Policy,Population Policy,Social Protection,Action, Affirmative,Migration Policies,Policies, Migration,Policies, Population,Policies, Public,Policies, Social,Policy, Migration,Policy, Population,Policy, Public,Policy, Social,Population Policies,Protection, Social,Public Policies,Social Policies
D004777 Environment The external elements and conditions which surround, influence, and affect the life and development of an organism or population. Environmental Impact,Environmental Impacts,Impact, Environmental,Impacts, Environmental,Environments
D005193 Family Planning Services Health care programs or services designed to assist individuals in the planning of family size. Various methods of CONTRACEPTION can be used to control the number and timing of childbirths. Family Planning,Family Planning Programs,Planned Pregnancy,Pregnancy, Planned,Family Planning Program,Family Planning Service,Planned Pregnancies,Planning Service, Family,Planning Services, Family,Pregnancies, Planned,Program, Family Planning,Programs, Family Planning,Service, Family Planning,Services, Family Planning
D005260 Female Females
D005579 Fossil Fuels Any combustible hydrocarbon deposit formed from the remains of prehistoric organisms. Examples are petroleum, coal, and natural gas. Fossil Fuel,Fuel, Fossil,Fuels, Fossil
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D057232 Global Warming Increase in the temperature of the atmosphere near the Earth's surface and in the troposphere, which can contribute to changes in global climate patterns. Warming, Global

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