Relationships between sudden weather changes in summer and mortality in the Czech Republic, 1986-2005. 2010

Eva Plavcová, and Jan Kyselý
Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS CR, Bocní II 1401, 141 31 Prague 4, Czech Republic. plavcova@ufa.cas.cz

The study examines the relationship between sudden changes in weather conditions in summer, represented by (1) sudden air temperature changes, (2) sudden atmospheric pressure changes, and (3) passages of strong atmospheric fronts; and variations in daily mortality in the population of the Czech Republic. The events are selected from data covering 1986-2005 and compared with the database of daily excess all-cause mortality for the whole population and persons aged 70 years and above. Relative deviations of mortality, i.e., ratios of the excess mortality to the expected number of deaths, were averaged over the selected events for days D-2 (2 days before a change) up to D+7 (7 days after), and their statistical significance was tested by means of the Monte Carlo method. We find that the periods around weather changes are associated with pronounced patterns in mortality: a significant increase in mortality is found after large temperature increases and on days of large pressure drops; a decrease in mortality (partly due to a harvesting effect) occurs after large temperature drops, pressure increases, and passages of strong cold fronts. The relationship to variations in excess mortality is better expressed for sudden air temperature/pressure changes than for passages of atmospheric fronts. The mortality effects are usually more pronounced in the age group 70 years and above. The impacts associated with large negative changes of pressure are statistically independent of the effects of temperature; the corresponding dummy variable is found to be a significant predictor in the ARIMA model for relative deviations of mortality. This suggests that sudden weather changes should be tested also in time series models for predicting excess mortality as they may enhance their performance.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D009010 Monte Carlo Method In statistics, a technique for numerically approximating the solution of a mathematical problem by studying the distribution of some random variable, often generated by a computer. The name alludes to the randomness characteristic of the games of chance played at the gambling casinos in Monte Carlo. (From Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed, 1993) Method, Monte Carlo
D009026 Mortality All deaths reported in a given population. CFR Case Fatality Rate,Crude Death Rate,Crude Mortality Rate,Death Rate,Age Specific Death Rate,Age-Specific Death Rate,Case Fatality Rate,Decline, Mortality,Determinants, Mortality,Differential Mortality,Excess Mortality,Mortality Decline,Mortality Determinants,Mortality Rate,Mortality, Differential,Mortality, Excess,Age-Specific Death Rates,Case Fatality Rates,Crude Death Rates,Crude Mortality Rates,Death Rate, Age-Specific,Death Rate, Crude,Death Rates,Determinant, Mortality,Differential Mortalities,Excess Mortalities,Mortalities,Mortality Declines,Mortality Determinant,Mortality Rate, Crude,Mortality Rates,Rate, Age-Specific Death,Rate, Case Fatality,Rate, Crude Death,Rate, Crude Mortality,Rate, Death,Rate, Mortality,Rates, Case Fatality
D003080 Cold Temperature An absence of warmth or heat or a temperature notably below an accustomed norm. Cold,Cold Temperatures,Temperature, Cold,Temperatures, Cold
D005843 Geography The science dealing with the earth and its life, especially the description of land, sea, and air and the distribution of plant and animal life, including humanity and human industries with reference to the mutual relations of these elements. (From Webster, 3d ed) Factor, Geographic,Factors, Geographic,Geographic Factor,Geographic Factors,Geography, Human,Human Geography
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000399 Air Pressure The force per unit area that the air exerts on any surface in contact with it. Primarily used for articles pertaining to air pressure within a closed environment. Air Pressures,Pressure, Air,Pressures, Air
D000531 Altitude A vertical distance measured from a known level on the surface of a planet or other celestial body. Altitudes
D012621 Seasons Divisions of the year according to some regularly recurrent phenomena usually astronomical or climatic. (From McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed) Seasonal Variation,Season,Seasonal Variations,Variation, Seasonal,Variations, Seasonal
D013997 Time Factors Elements of limited time intervals, contributing to particular results or situations. Time Series,Factor, Time,Time Factor
D014887 Weather The state of the ATMOSPHERE over minutes to months. Fog,Fogs

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