Stochastic calibration of riverine water quality models. 2010

Geoff T Parker, and Ronald L Droste, and Colin D Rennie
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. geoff@thinknew.ca

Though commonly used, the suitability of deterministic calibration criteria for stochastic model calibration and uncertainty analysis is unclear. The purpose of this paper is to examine the suitability, relative benefits, and substantial disadvantages of "deterministic-optimization" approaches, such as root mean square error (RMSE), in stochastic contexts. Three alternate calibration strategies that are suitable for stochastic modeling of water quality under uncertainty are proposed and then demonstrated. The three alternate strategies are the absolute relative error (ARE), weighted relative error, and stochastic exceedance calibration strategy. The findings suggest that potential improvements can be made to current calibration paradigms. The alternate calibration strategies, all of which are based on relative error, were found to match or exceed RMSE calibration strategies, in terms of overall performance, with the enhancement of superior model surface-response characteristics. Additionally, the application of more stringent ARE criteria offered greater improvement in the stochastic calibration response than increasing the RMSE threshold criteria. Several qualitative benefits of ARE and related metrics also were shown. Because many environmental systems and almost all water quality models are subject to substantial uncertainty, approaches such as those proposed hold substantial, widely applicable benefits.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D002138 Calibration Determination, by measurement or comparison with a standard, of the correct value of each scale reading on a meter or other measuring instrument; or determination of the settings of a control device that correspond to particular values of voltage, current, frequency or other output. Calibrations
D004784 Environmental Monitoring The monitoring of the level of toxins, chemical pollutants, microbial contaminants, or other harmful substances in the environment (soil, air, and water), workplace, or in the bodies of people and animals present in that environment. Monitoring, Environmental,Environmental Surveillance,Surveillance, Environmental
D013269 Stochastic Processes Processes that incorporate some element of randomness, used particularly to refer to a time series of random variables. Process, Stochastic,Stochastic Process,Processes, Stochastic
D014481 United States A country in NORTH AMERICA between CANADA and MEXICO.
D014873 Water Pollutants Substances or organisms which pollute the water or bodies of water. Use for water pollutants in general or those for which there is no specific heading. Water Pollutant,Pollutant, Water,Pollutants, Water
D045483 Rivers Large natural streams of FRESH WATER formed by converging tributaries and which empty into a body of water (lake or ocean). Streams,River,Stream

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