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Forecasting spore concentrations: a time series approach. 1990

E Stephen, and A E Raftery, and P Dowding
Im Mahden 38, Ehningen, Federal Republic of Germany.

Fungal basidiospores and Cladosporium spores are the two most numerous spore types in the air of Dublin and its surroundings. They are known to have allergenic components, and the aim of the study described here is to develop a predictive model for these spores. A very simple model, which combines an estimated diurnal rhythm with a simple, one-parameter time series model, provided good short-term forecasts. The one-step prediction error variance was reduced by 88% for Cladosporium spores and by 98% for basidiospores.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008685 Meteorological Concepts The atmospheric properties, characteristics and other atmospheric phenomena especially pertaining to WEATHER or CLIMATE. Meteorological Factors,Meteorologic Factors,Concept, Meteorological,Concepts, Meteorological,Factor, Meteorologic,Factor, Meteorological,Factors, Meteorologic,Factors, Meteorological,Meteorologic Factor,Meteorological Concept,Meteorological Factor
D011058 Pollen The fertilizing element of plants that contains the male GAMETOPHYTES. Male Gametes, Plant,Male Gametophytes,Microspores, Plant,Plant Microspores,Pollen Grains,Gamete, Plant Male,Gametes, Plant Male,Gametophyte, Male,Gametophytes, Male,Grain, Pollen,Grains, Pollen,Male Gamete, Plant,Male Gametophyte,Microspore, Plant,Plant Male Gamete,Plant Male Gametes,Plant Microspore,Pollen Grain
D002940 Circadian Rhythm The regular recurrence, in cycles of about 24 hours, of biological processes or activities, such as sensitivity to drugs or environmental and physiological stimuli. Diurnal Rhythm,Nyctohemeral Rhythm,Twenty-Four Hour Rhythm,Nycthemeral Rhythm,Circadian Rhythms,Diurnal Rhythms,Nycthemeral Rhythms,Nyctohemeral Rhythms,Rhythm, Circadian,Rhythm, Diurnal,Rhythm, Nycthemeral,Rhythm, Nyctohemeral,Rhythm, Twenty-Four Hour,Rhythms, Circadian,Rhythms, Diurnal,Rhythms, Nycthemeral,Rhythms, Nyctohemeral,Rhythms, Twenty-Four Hour,Twenty Four Hour Rhythm,Twenty-Four Hour Rhythms
D002963 Cladosporium A mitosporic Loculoascomycetes fungal genus including some economically important plant parasites. Teleomorphs include Mycosphaerella and Venturia. Cladosporiums
D000391 Air Microbiology The presence of bacteria, viruses, and fungi in the air. This term is not restricted to pathogenic organisms. Microbiology, Air
D001487 Basidiomycota A phylum of fungi that produce their sexual spores (basidiospores) on the outside of the basidium. It includes forms commonly known as mushrooms, boletes, puffballs, earthstars, stinkhorns, bird's-nest fungi, jelly fungi, bracket or shelf fungi, and rust and smut fungi. Basidiomycetes,Basidiomycete,Basidiomycotas
D013172 Spores, Fungal Reproductive bodies produced by fungi. Conidia,Fungal Spores,Conidium,Fungal Spore,Spore, Fungal
D015233 Models, Statistical Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc. Probabilistic Models,Statistical Models,Two-Parameter Models,Model, Statistical,Models, Binomial,Models, Polynomial,Statistical Model,Binomial Model,Binomial Models,Model, Binomial,Model, Polynomial,Model, Probabilistic,Model, Two-Parameter,Models, Probabilistic,Models, Two-Parameter,Polynomial Model,Polynomial Models,Probabilistic Model,Two Parameter Models,Two-Parameter Model

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