Biomaterial Database

A time series approach to forecasting Australian total live-births. 1979

J McDonald

The relationship between classical demographic deterministic forecasting models, stochastic structural econometric models and time series models is discussed. Final equation autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models for Australian total live-births are constructed. Particular attention is given to the problem of transforming the time series to stationarity (and Gaussianity) and the properties of the forecasts are analyzed. Final form transfer function models linking births to females in the reproductive age groups are also constructed and a comparison of actual forecast performance using the various models is made. Long-run future forecasts are generated and compared with available projections based on the deterministic cohort model after which some policy implications of the analysis are considered.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D008433	Mathematics	The deductive study of shape, quantity, and dependence. (From McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed)	Mathematic
D008962	Models, Theoretical	Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.	Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D001723	Birth Rate	The number of births in a given population per year or other unit of time.	Natality,Age-Specific Birth Rate,Age-Specific Fertility Rate,Fertility Rate,Age Specific Birth Rate,Age Specific Fertility Rate,Age-Specific Birth Rates,Age-Specific Fertility Rates,Birth Rate, Age-Specific,Birth Rates,Fertility Rate, Age-Specific,Fertility Rates,Natalities,Rate, Age-Specific Fertility,Rate, Birth,Rate, Fertility
D005544	Forecasting	The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology.	Futurology,Projections and Predictions,Future,Predictions and Projections
D006801	Humans	Members of the species Homo sapiens.	Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D001315	Australia	The smallest continent and an independent country, comprising six states and two territories. Its capital is Canberra.	Canton and Enderbury Islands,Christmas Island,Christmas Island (Australia)
D013269	Stochastic Processes	Processes that incorporate some element of randomness, used particularly to refer to a time series of random variables.	Process, Stochastic,Stochastic Process,Processes, Stochastic