Publication bias in the anesthesiology literature. 2012

Gildasio S De Oliveira, and Ray Chang, and Mark C Kendall, and Paul C Fitzgerald, and Robert J McCarthy
Department of Anesthesiology, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL, USA.

BACKGROUND Publication bias occurs because positive finding studies are more likely to be published. The dearth of studies of negative or equivalence findings can erroneously affect future research and potentially clinical care of patients. We hypothesized that positive studies were more likely to be published than negative studies in anesthesiology journals with a higher impact and circulation. METHODS A PubMed search for controlled trials in humans published in peer-reviewed anesthesiology journals during 2008 and 2009 was performed. Fourteen anesthesiology journals and 1163 studies were evaluated. The average clinical trial impact factor (average citations per article) for each journal was determined. The quartiles for the clinical trial impact factor for the journals included in the analysis were 4, 6.1, and 9.1. Studies were scored by 2 raters as positive or negative results of the primary stated outcome. Factors previously associated with publication were also extracted. The primary outcome, the proportion of positive and negative studies in the journals in the upper quartile of the clinical trial impact factor to the lower quartiles was compared using the Fisher exact test. The odds ratio for the effect of positive study results adjusted for other characteristics associated with publication was determined using binary logistic regression. A multinomial logistic regression model was fitted for the journals with an impact factor in the upper quartile with adjustment for study trial registration, origin of publication, positive study findings, reporting of treatment blinding, reporting of subject withdrawals, study sponsorship, and description of the randomization method. RESULTS Positive finding studies were identified in 72% (425 of 588) of articles in journals with a clinical trial impact factor >9.1 compared with 53% (308 of 575) in journals <9.1 (P < 0.001). After adjusting for factors associated with publication, positive study results had an odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 2.28 (1.76-3.01) for publication in an anesthesiology journal in the upper quartile. Multinomial logistic regression identified positive study findings associated with an increased likelihood of publication in 3 of the 4 anesthesiology journals with a clinical trial impact factor >9.1. CONCLUSIONS This study reports the presence of publication bias in the anesthesiology literature especially in higher clinical trial impact factor journals. Publication bias can have potential implications for future research and the clinical care of patients. Authors should be encouraged to submit negative studies to high impact journals and the journals should be encouraged to evaluate the editorial process as the cause of publication bias.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D012107 Research Design A plan for collecting and utilizing data so that desired information can be obtained with sufficient precision or so that an hypothesis can be tested properly. Experimental Design,Data Adjustment,Data Reporting,Design, Experimental,Designs, Experimental,Error Sources,Experimental Designs,Matched Groups,Methodology, Research,Problem Formulation,Research Methodology,Research Proposal,Research Strategy,Research Technics,Research Techniques,Scoring Methods,Adjustment, Data,Adjustments, Data,Data Adjustments,Design, Research,Designs, Research,Error Source,Formulation, Problem,Formulations, Problem,Group, Matched,Groups, Matched,Matched Group,Method, Scoring,Methods, Scoring,Problem Formulations,Proposal, Research,Proposals, Research,Reporting, Data,Research Designs,Research Proposals,Research Strategies,Research Technic,Research Technique,Scoring Method,Source, Error,Sources, Error,Strategies, Research,Strategy, Research,Technic, Research,Technics, Research,Technique, Research,Techniques, Research
D012109 Research Support as Topic Work about financial support of research activities. Grants and Subsidies, Research,Subsidies, Research,Research Subsidies,Research Subsidy
D002986 Clinical Trials as Topic Works about pre-planned studies of the safety, efficacy, or optimum dosage schedule (if appropriate) of one or more diagnostic, therapeutic, or prophylactic drugs, devices, or techniques selected according to predetermined criteria of eligibility and observed for predefined evidence of favorable and unfavorable effects. This concept includes clinical trials conducted both in the U.S. and in other countries. Clinical Trial as Topic
D003627 Data Interpretation, Statistical Application of statistical procedures to analyze specific observed or assumed facts from a particular study. Data Analysis, Statistical,Data Interpretations, Statistical,Interpretation, Statistical Data,Statistical Data Analysis,Statistical Data Interpretation,Analyses, Statistical Data,Analysis, Statistical Data,Data Analyses, Statistical,Interpretations, Statistical Data,Statistical Data Analyses,Statistical Data Interpretations
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000776 Anesthesiology A specialty concerned with the study of anesthetics and anesthesia.
D015233 Models, Statistical Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc. Probabilistic Models,Statistical Models,Two-Parameter Models,Model, Statistical,Models, Binomial,Models, Polynomial,Statistical Model,Binomial Model,Binomial Models,Model, Binomial,Model, Polynomial,Model, Probabilistic,Model, Two-Parameter,Models, Probabilistic,Models, Two-Parameter,Polynomial Model,Polynomial Models,Probabilistic Model,Two Parameter Models,Two-Parameter Model
D015337 Multicenter Studies as Topic Works about controlled studies which are planned and carried out by several cooperating institutions to assess certain variables and outcomes in specific patient populations, for example, a multicenter study of congenital anomalies in children. Multicenter Trials,Multicentre Studies as Topic,Multicentre Trials,Multicenter Trial,Multicentre Trial,Trial, Multicenter,Trial, Multicentre,Trials, Multicenter,Trials, Multicentre
D015706 Bibliometrics The use of statistical methods in the analysis of a body of literature to reveal the historical development of subject fields and patterns of authorship, publication, and use. Formerly called statistical bibliography. (from The ALA Glossary of Library and Information Science, 1983) Bibliography, Statistical,Analysis, Bibliometric,Bibliographies, Statistical,Bibliometric Analysis,Statistical Bibliographies,Statistical Bibliography,Analyses, Bibliometric,Bibliometric Analyses
D016013 Likelihood Functions Functions constructed from a statistical model and a set of observed data which give the probability of that data for various values of the unknown model parameters. Those parameter values that maximize the probability are the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. Likelihood Ratio Test,Maximum Likelihood Estimates,Estimate, Maximum Likelihood,Estimates, Maximum Likelihood,Function, Likelihood,Functions, Likelihood,Likelihood Function,Maximum Likelihood Estimate,Test, Likelihood Ratio

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