Fitting and interpreting occupancy models. 2013

Alan H Welsh, and David B Lindenmayer, and Christine F Donnelly
Centre for Mathematics and its Applications, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. Alan.Welsh@anu.edu.au

We show that occupancy models are more difficult to fit than is generally appreciated because the estimating equations often have multiple solutions, including boundary estimates which produce fitted probabilities of zero or one. The estimates are unstable when the data are sparse, making them difficult to interpret, and, even in ideal situations, highly variable. As a consequence, making accurate inference is difficult. When abundance varies over sites (which is the general rule in ecology because we expect spatial variance in abundance) and detection depends on abundance, the standard analysis suffers bias (attenuation in detection, biased estimates of occupancy and potentially finding misleading relationships between occupancy and other covariates), asymmetric sampling distributions, and slow convergence of the sampling distributions to normality. The key result of this paper is that the biases are of similar magnitude to those obtained when we ignore non-detection entirely. The fact that abundance is subject to detection error and hence is not directly observable, means that we cannot tell when bias is present (or, equivalently, how large it is) and we cannot adjust for it. This implies that we cannot tell which fit is better: the fit from the occupancy model or the fit ignoring the possibility of detection error. Therefore trying to adjust occupancy models for non-detection can be as misleading as ignoring non-detection completely. Ignoring non-detection can actually be better than trying to adjust for it.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D011156 Population Density Number of individuals in a population relative to space. Overpopulation,Population Size,Underpopulation,Densities, Population,Density, Population,Population Densities,Population Sizes
D011157 Population Dynamics The pattern of any process, or the interrelationship of phenomena, which affects growth or change within a population. Malthusianism,Neomalthusianism,Demographic Aging,Demographic Transition,Optimum Population,Population Decrease,Population Pressure,Population Replacement,Population Theory,Residential Mobility,Rural-Urban Migration,Stable Population,Stationary Population,Aging, Demographic,Decrease, Population,Decreases, Population,Demographic Transitions,Dynamics, Population,Migration, Rural-Urban,Migrations, Rural-Urban,Mobilities, Residential,Mobility, Residential,Optimum Populations,Population Decreases,Population Pressures,Population Replacements,Population Theories,Population, Optimum,Population, Stable,Population, Stationary,Populations, Optimum,Populations, Stable,Populations, Stationary,Pressure, Population,Pressures, Population,Replacement, Population,Replacements, Population,Residential Mobilities,Rural Urban Migration,Rural-Urban Migrations,Stable Populations,Stationary Populations,Theories, Population,Theory, Population,Transition, Demographic,Transitions, Demographic
D003198 Computer Simulation Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes. Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D004463 Ecology The branch of science concerned with the interrelationship of organisms and their ENVIRONMENT, especially as manifested by natural cycles and rhythms, community development and structure, interactions between different kinds of organisms, geographic distributions, and population alterations. (Webster's, 3d ed) Bionomics,Ecologies
D000465 Algorithms A procedure consisting of a sequence of algebraic formulas and/or logical steps to calculate or determine a given task. Algorithm
D015203 Reproducibility of Results The statistical reproducibility of measurements (often in a clinical context), including the testing of instrumentation or techniques to obtain reproducible results. The concept includes reproducibility of physiological measurements, which may be used to develop rules to assess probability or prognosis, or response to a stimulus; reproducibility of occurrence of a condition; and reproducibility of experimental results. Reliability and Validity,Reliability of Result,Reproducibility Of Result,Reproducibility of Finding,Validity of Result,Validity of Results,Face Validity,Reliability (Epidemiology),Reliability of Results,Reproducibility of Findings,Test-Retest Reliability,Validity (Epidemiology),Finding Reproducibilities,Finding Reproducibility,Of Result, Reproducibility,Of Results, Reproducibility,Reliabilities, Test-Retest,Reliability, Test-Retest,Result Reliabilities,Result Reliability,Result Validities,Result Validity,Result, Reproducibility Of,Results, Reproducibility Of,Test Retest Reliability,Validity and Reliability,Validity, Face
D015233 Models, Statistical Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc. Probabilistic Models,Statistical Models,Two-Parameter Models,Model, Statistical,Models, Binomial,Models, Polynomial,Statistical Model,Binomial Model,Binomial Models,Model, Binomial,Model, Polynomial,Model, Probabilistic,Model, Two-Parameter,Models, Probabilistic,Models, Two-Parameter,Polynomial Model,Polynomial Models,Probabilistic Model,Two Parameter Models,Two-Parameter Model

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