Ignoring imperfect detection in biological surveys is dangerous: a response to 'fitting and interpreting occupancy models'. 2014

Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita, and José J Lahoz-Monfort, and Darryl I MacKenzie, and Brendan A Wintle, and Michael A McCarthy
School of Botany, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.

In a recent paper, Welsh, Lindenmayer and Donnelly (WLD) question the usefulness of models that estimate species occupancy while accounting for detectability. WLD claim that these models are difficult to fit and argue that disregarding detectability can be better than trying to adjust for it. We think that this conclusion and subsequent recommendations are not well founded and may negatively impact the quality of statistical inference in ecology and related management decisions. Here we respond to WLD's claims, evaluating in detail their arguments, using simulations and/or theory to support our points. In particular, WLD argue that both disregarding and accounting for imperfect detection lead to the same estimator performance regardless of sample size when detectability is a function of abundance. We show that this, the key result of their paper, only holds for cases of extreme heterogeneity like the single scenario they considered. Our results illustrate the dangers of disregarding imperfect detection. When ignored, occupancy and detection are confounded: the same naïve occupancy estimates can be obtained for very different true levels of occupancy so the size of the bias is unknowable. Hierarchical occupancy models separate occupancy and detection, and imprecise estimates simply indicate that more data are required for robust inference about the system in question. As for any statistical method, when underlying assumptions of simple hierarchical models are violated, their reliability is reduced. Resorting in those instances where hierarchical occupancy models do no perform well to the naïve occupancy estimator does not provide a satisfactory solution. The aim should instead be to achieve better estimation, by minimizing the effect of these issues during design, data collection and analysis, ensuring that the right amount of data is collected and model assumptions are met, considering model extensions where appropriate.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D003198 Computer Simulation Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes. Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D004463 Ecology The branch of science concerned with the interrelationship of organisms and their ENVIRONMENT, especially as manifested by natural cycles and rhythms, community development and structure, interactions between different kinds of organisms, geographic distributions, and population alterations. (Webster's, 3d ed) Bionomics,Ecologies
D000465 Algorithms A procedure consisting of a sequence of algebraic formulas and/or logical steps to calculate or determine a given task. Algorithm
D015233 Models, Statistical Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc. Probabilistic Models,Statistical Models,Two-Parameter Models,Model, Statistical,Models, Binomial,Models, Polynomial,Statistical Model,Binomial Model,Binomial Models,Model, Binomial,Model, Polynomial,Model, Probabilistic,Model, Two-Parameter,Models, Probabilistic,Models, Two-Parameter,Polynomial Model,Polynomial Models,Probabilistic Model,Two Parameter Models,Two-Parameter Model

Related Publications

Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita, and José J Lahoz-Monfort, and Darryl I MacKenzie, and Brendan A Wintle, and Michael A McCarthy
January 2013, PloS one,
Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita, and José J Lahoz-Monfort, and Darryl I MacKenzie, and Brendan A Wintle, and Michael A McCarthy
December 2011, Ecology,
Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita, and José J Lahoz-Monfort, and Darryl I MacKenzie, and Brendan A Wintle, and Michael A McCarthy
January 2017, Ecology,
Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita, and José J Lahoz-Monfort, and Darryl I MacKenzie, and Brendan A Wintle, and Michael A McCarthy
January 2014, PloS one,
Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita, and José J Lahoz-Monfort, and Darryl I MacKenzie, and Brendan A Wintle, and Michael A McCarthy
October 2012, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America,
Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita, and José J Lahoz-Monfort, and Darryl I MacKenzie, and Brendan A Wintle, and Michael A McCarthy
April 2022, Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology,
Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita, and José J Lahoz-Monfort, and Darryl I MacKenzie, and Brendan A Wintle, and Michael A McCarthy
October 2016, Trends in ecology & evolution,
Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita, and José J Lahoz-Monfort, and Darryl I MacKenzie, and Brendan A Wintle, and Michael A McCarthy
January 2007, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America,
Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita, and José J Lahoz-Monfort, and Darryl I MacKenzie, and Brendan A Wintle, and Michael A McCarthy
November 2013, Statistics in medicine,
Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita, and José J Lahoz-Monfort, and Darryl I MacKenzie, and Brendan A Wintle, and Michael A McCarthy
March 2009, Journal of multivariate analysis,
Copied contents to your clipboard!