Inferring influenza infection attack rate from seroprevalence data. 2014

Joseph T Wu, and Kathy Leung, and Ranawaka A P M Perera, and Daniel K W Chu, and Cheuk Kwong Lee, and Ivan F N Hung, and Che Kit Lin, and Su-Vui Lo, and Yu-Lung Lau, and Gabriel M Leung, and Benjamin J Cowling, and J S Malik Peiris
Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China.

Seroprevalence survey is the most practical method for accurately estimating infection attack rate (IAR) in an epidemic such as influenza. These studies typically entail selecting an arbitrary titer threshold for seropositivity (e.g. microneutralization [MN] 1∶40) and assuming the probability of seropositivity given infection (infection-seropositivity probability, ISP) is 100% or similar to that among clinical cases. We hypothesize that such conventions are not necessarily robust because different thresholds may result in different IAR estimates and serologic responses of clinical cases may not be representative. To illustrate our hypothesis, we used an age-structured transmission model to fully characterize the transmission dynamics and seroprevalence rises of 2009 influenza pandemic A/H1N1 (pdmH1N1) during its first wave in Hong Kong. We estimated that while 99% of pdmH1N1 infections became MN1∶20 seropositive, only 72%, 62%, 58% and 34% of infections among age 3-12, 13-19, 20-29, 30-59 became MN1∶40 seropositive, which was much lower than the 90%-100% observed among clinical cases. The fitted model was consistent with prevailing consensus on pdmH1N1 transmission characteristics (e.g. initial reproductive number of 1.28 and mean generation time of 2.4 days which were within the consensus range), hence our ISP estimates were consistent with the transmission dynamics and temporal buildup of population-level immunity. IAR estimates in influenza seroprevalence studies are sensitive to seropositivity thresholds and ISP adjustments which in current practice are mostly chosen based on conventions instead of systematic criteria. Our results thus highlighted the need for reexamining conventional practice to develop standards for analyzing influenza serologic data (e.g. real-time assessment of bias in ISP adjustments by evaluating the consistency of IAR across multiple thresholds and with mixture models), especially in the context of pandemics when robustness and comparability of IAR estimates are most needed for informing situational awareness and risk assessment. The same principles are broadly applicable for seroprevalence studies of other infectious disease outbreaks.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007251 Influenza, Human An acute viral infection in humans involving the respiratory tract. It is marked by inflammation of the NASAL MUCOSA; the PHARYNX; and conjunctiva, and by headache and severe, often generalized, myalgia. Grippe,Human Flu,Human Influenza,Influenza in Humans,Influenza,Flu, Human,Human Influenzas,Influenza in Human,Influenzas,Influenzas, Human
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D002675 Child, Preschool A child between the ages of 2 and 5. Children, Preschool,Preschool Child,Preschool Children
D006723 Hong Kong The former British crown colony located off the southeast coast of China, comprised of Hong Kong Island, Kowloon Peninsula, and New Territories. The three sites were ceded to the British by the Chinese respectively in 1841, 1860, and 1898. Hong Kong reverted to China in July 1997. The name represents the Cantonese pronunciation of the Chinese xianggang, fragrant port, from xiang, perfume and gang, port or harbor, with reference to its currents sweetened by fresh water from a river west of it. Kowloon,New Territories,Hongkong
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000293 Adolescent A person 13 to 18 years of age. Adolescence,Youth,Adolescents,Adolescents, Female,Adolescents, Male,Teenagers,Teens,Adolescent, Female,Adolescent, Male,Female Adolescent,Female Adolescents,Male Adolescent,Male Adolescents,Teen,Teenager,Youths
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D016036 Seroepidemiologic Studies EPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDIES based on the detection through serological testing of characteristic change in the serum level of specific ANTIBODIES. Latent subclinical infections and carrier states can thus be detected in addition to clinically overt cases. Seroprevalence,Seroepidemiologic Study,Seroepidemiological Study,Studies, Seroepidemiologic,Study, Seroepidemiologic,Seroepidemiological Studies,Seroprevalences,Studies, Seroepidemiological,Study, Seroepidemiological

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