Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data. 2021

John P A Ioannidis
Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, 1265 Welch Road, Stanford, California 94305, United States of America.

OBJECTIVE To estimate the infection fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from seroprevalence data. METHODS I searched PubMed and preprint servers for COVID-19 seroprevalence studies with a sample size ≥ 500 as of 9 September 2020. I also retrieved additional results of national studies from preliminary press releases and reports. I assessed the studies for design features and seroprevalence estimates. I estimated the infection fatality rate for each study by dividing the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths by the number of people estimated to be infected in each region. I corrected for the number of immunoglobin (Ig) types tested (IgG, IgM, IgA). RESULTS I included 61 studies (74 estimates) and eight preliminary national estimates. Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.02% to 53.40%. Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 1.63%, corrected values from 0.00% to 1.54%. Across 51 locations, the median COVID-19 infection fatality rate was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%): the rate was 0.09% in locations with COVID-19 population mortality rates less than the global average (< 118 deaths/million), 0.20% in locations with 118-500 COVID-19 deaths/million people and 0.57% in locations with > 500 COVID-19 deaths/million people. In people younger than 70 years, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.31% with crude and corrected medians of 0.05%. CONCLUSIONS The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 can vary substantially across different locations and this may reflect differences in population age structure and case-mix of infected and deceased patients and other factors. The inferred infection fatality rates tended to be much lower than estimates made earlier in the pandemic.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000086382 COVID-19 A viral disorder generally characterized by high FEVER; COUGH; DYSPNEA; CHILLS; PERSISTENT TREMOR; MUSCLE PAIN; HEADACHE; SORE THROAT; a new loss of taste and/or smell (see AGEUSIA and ANOSMIA) and other symptoms of a VIRAL PNEUMONIA. In severe cases, a myriad of coagulopathy associated symptoms often correlating with COVID-19 severity is seen (e.g., BLOOD COAGULATION; THROMBOSIS; ACUTE RESPIRATORY DISTRESS SYNDROME; SEIZURES; HEART ATTACK; STROKE; multiple CEREBRAL INFARCTIONS; KIDNEY FAILURE; catastrophic ANTIPHOSPHOLIPID ANTIBODY SYNDROME and/or DISSEMINATED INTRAVASCULAR COAGULATION). In younger patients, rare inflammatory syndromes are sometimes associated with COVID-19 (e.g., atypical KAWASAKI SYNDROME; TOXIC SHOCK SYNDROME; pediatric multisystem inflammatory disease; and CYTOKINE STORM SYNDROME). A coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, in the genus BETACORONAVIRUS is the causative agent. 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease,2019 Novel Coronavirus Infection,2019-nCoV Disease,2019-nCoV Infection,COVID-19 Pandemic,COVID-19 Pandemics,COVID-19 Virus Disease,COVID-19 Virus Infection,Coronavirus Disease 2019,Coronavirus Disease-19,SARS Coronavirus 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infection,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection,COVID19,2019 nCoV Disease,2019 nCoV Infection,2019-nCoV Diseases,2019-nCoV Infections,COVID 19,COVID 19 Pandemic,COVID 19 Virus Disease,COVID 19 Virus Infection,COVID-19 Virus Diseases,COVID-19 Virus Infections,Coronavirus Disease 19,Disease 2019, Coronavirus,Disease, 2019-nCoV,Disease, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, 2019-nCoV,Infection, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, SARS-CoV-2,Pandemic, COVID-19,SARS CoV 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infections,Virus Disease, COVID-19,Virus Infection, COVID-19
D000086402 SARS-CoV-2 A species of BETACORONAVIRUS causing atypical respiratory disease (COVID-19) in humans. The organism was first identified in 2019 in Wuhan, China. The natural host is the Chinese intermediate horseshoe bat, RHINOLOPHUS affinis. 2019 Novel Coronavirus,COVID-19 Virus,COVID19 Virus,Coronavirus Disease 2019 Virus,SARS Coronavirus 2,SARS-CoV-2 Virus,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2,Wuhan Coronavirus,Wuhan Seafood Market Pneumonia Virus,2019-nCoV,2019 Novel Coronaviruses,COVID 19 Virus,COVID-19 Viruses,COVID19 Viruses,Coronavirus 2, SARS,Coronavirus, 2019 Novel,Coronavirus, Wuhan,Novel Coronavirus, 2019,SARS CoV 2 Virus,SARS-CoV-2 Viruses,Virus, COVID-19,Virus, COVID19,Virus, SARS-CoV-2,Viruses, COVID19
D016036 Seroepidemiologic Studies EPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDIES based on the detection through serological testing of characteristic change in the serum level of specific ANTIBODIES. Latent subclinical infections and carrier states can thus be detected in addition to clinically overt cases. Seroprevalence,Seroepidemiologic Study,Seroepidemiological Study,Studies, Seroepidemiologic,Study, Seroepidemiologic,Seroepidemiological Studies,Seroprevalences,Studies, Seroepidemiological,Study, Seroepidemiological

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