Household level spatio-temporal analysis of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria in Ethiopia. 2017

Dinberu Seyoum, and Delenasaw Yewhalaw, and Luc Duchateau, and Patrick Brandt, and Angel Rosas-Aguirre, and Niko Speybroeck
Institute of Health and Society (IRSS), Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium.

BACKGROUND The global decline of malaria burden and goals for elimination has led to an increased interest in the fine-scale epidemiology of malaria. Micro-geographic heterogeneity of malaria infection could have implications for designing targeted small-area interventions. METHODS Two-year longitudinal cohort study data were used to explore the spatial and spatio-temporal distribution of malaria episodes in 2040 children aged < 10 years in 16 villages near the Gilgel-Gibe hydropower dam in Southwest Ethiopia. All selected households (HHs) were geo-referenced, and children were followed up through weekly house-to-house visits for two consecutive years to identify febrile episodes of P. falciparum and P. vivax infections. After confirming the spatial dependence of malaria episodes with Ripley's K function, SatScanTM was used to identify purely spatial and space-time clusters (hotspots) of annual malaria incidence for 2 years follow-up: year 1 (July 2008-June 2009) and year 2 (July 2009-June 2010). RESULTS In total, 685 P. falciparum episodes (in 492 HHs) and 385 P. vivax episodes (in 290 HHs) were identified, representing respectively incidence rates of 14.6 (95% CI: 13.4-15.6) and 8.2 (95% CI: 7.3-9.1) per 1000 child-months at risk. In year 1, the most likely (128 HHs with 63 episodes, RR = 2.1) and secondary (15 HHs with 12 episodes, RR = 5.31) clusters of P. vivax incidence were found respectively in southern and north-western villages; while in year 2, the most likely cluster was located only in north-western villages (85 HHs with 16 episodes, RR = 4.4). Instead, most likely spatial clusters of P. falciparum incidence were consistently located in villages south of the dam in both years: year 1 (167 HHs with 81 episodes, RR = 1.8) and year 2 (133 HHs with 67 episodes, RR = 2.2). Space-time clusters in southern villages for P. vivax were found in August-November 2008 in year 1 and between November 2009 and February 2010 in year 2; while for P. falciparum, they were found in September-November 2008 in year 1 and October-November 2009 in year 2. CONCLUSIONS Hotspots of P. falciparum incidence in children were more stable at the geographical level and over time compared to those of P. vivax incidence during the study period.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008137 Longitudinal Studies Studies in which variables relating to an individual or group of individuals are assessed over a period of time. Bogalusa Heart Study,California Teachers Study,Framingham Heart Study,Jackson Heart Study,Longitudinal Survey,Tuskegee Syphilis Study,Bogalusa Heart Studies,California Teachers Studies,Framingham Heart Studies,Heart Studies, Bogalusa,Heart Studies, Framingham,Heart Studies, Jackson,Heart Study, Bogalusa,Heart Study, Framingham,Heart Study, Jackson,Jackson Heart Studies,Longitudinal Study,Longitudinal Surveys,Studies, Bogalusa Heart,Studies, California Teachers,Studies, Jackson Heart,Studies, Longitudinal,Study, Bogalusa Heart,Study, California Teachers,Study, Longitudinal,Survey, Longitudinal,Surveys, Longitudinal,Syphilis Studies, Tuskegee,Syphilis Study, Tuskegee,Teachers Studies, California,Teachers Study, California,Tuskegee Syphilis Studies
D008297 Male Males
D010963 Plasmodium falciparum A species of protozoa that is the causal agent of falciparum malaria (MALARIA, FALCIPARUM). It is most prevalent in the tropics and subtropics. Plasmodium falciparums,falciparums, Plasmodium
D010966 Plasmodium vivax A protozoan parasite that causes vivax malaria (MALARIA, VIVAX). This species is found almost everywhere malaria is endemic and is the only one that has a range extending into the temperate regions. Plasmodium vivaxs,vivax, Plasmodium
D002648 Child A person 6 to 12 years of age. An individual 2 to 5 years old is CHILD, PRESCHOOL. Children
D002675 Child, Preschool A child between the ages of 2 and 5. Children, Preschool,Preschool Child,Preschool Children
D005002 Ethiopia An independent state in eastern Africa. Ethiopia is located in the Horn of Africa and is bordered on the north and northeast by Eritrea, on the east by Djibouti and Somalia, on the south by Kenya, and on the west and southwest by Sudan. Its capital is Addis Ababa. Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
D005191 Family Characteristics Size and composition of the family. Family Size,Couples,Family Demography,Family Life Surveys,Family Size, Average,Family Size, Completed,Family Size, Desired,Family Size, Expected,Family Size, Ideal,Family and Household,Generations,Head of Household,Households,One-Person Household,Average Family Size,Average Family Sizes,Completed Family Size,Completed Family Sizes,Demography, Family,Desired Family Size,Desired Family Sizes,Expected Family Size,Expected Family Sizes,Family Characteristic,Family Demographies,Family Life Survey,Family Sizes,Family Sizes, Ideal,Household,Household Head,Household Heads,Household and Family,Household, One-Person,Ideal Family Size,Ideal Family Sizes,One Person Household,One-Person Households,Survey, Family Life
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man

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