Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in French Guiana: 2005-2019. 2021

Jenna Scully, and Emilie Mosnier, and Aurel Carbunar, and Emmanuel Roux, and Félix Djossou, and Nicolas Garçeran, and Lise Musset, and Alice Sanna, and Magalie Demar, and Mathieu Nacher, and Jean Gaudart
Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA.

Aims: This study examines the dynamics of malaria as influenced by meteorological factors in French Guiana from 2005 to 2019. It explores spatial hotspots of malaria transmission and aims to determine the factors associated with variation of hotspots with time. Methods: Data for individual malaria cases came from the surveillance system of the Delocalized Centers for Prevention and Care (CDPS) (n = 17) from 2005-2019. Meteorological data was acquired from the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) database. The Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model tested stationarity of the time series, and the impact of meteorological indices (issued from principal component analysis-PCA) on malaria incidence was determined with a general additive model. Hotspot characterization was performed using spatial scan statistics. Results: The current sample includes 7050 eligible Plasmodium vivax (n = 4111) and Plasmodium falciparum (n = 2939) cases from health centers across French Guiana. The first and second PCA-derived meteorological components (maximum/minimum temperature/minimum humidity and maximum humidity, respectively) were significantly negatively correlated with total malaria incidence with a lag of one week and 10 days, respectively. Overall malaria incidence decreased across the time series until 2017 when incidence began to trend upwards. Hotspot characterization revealed a few health centers that exhibited spatial stability across the entire time series: Saint Georges de l'Oyapock and Antecume Pata for P. falciparum, and Saint Georges de l'Oyapock, Antecume Pata, Régina and Camopi for P. vivax. Conclusions: This study highlighted changing malaria incidence in French Guiana and the influences of meteorological factors on transmission. Many health centers showed spatial stability in transmission, albeit not temporal. Knowledge of the areas of high transmission as well as how and why transmission has changed over time can inform strategies to reduce the transmission of malaria in French Guiana. Hotspots should be further investigated to understand other influences on local transmission, which will help to facilitate elimination.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D010963 Plasmodium falciparum A species of protozoa that is the causal agent of falciparum malaria (MALARIA, FALCIPARUM). It is most prevalent in the tropics and subtropics. Plasmodium falciparums,falciparums, Plasmodium
D010966 Plasmodium vivax A protozoan parasite that causes vivax malaria (MALARIA, VIVAX). This species is found almost everywhere malaria is endemic and is the only one that has a range extending into the temperate regions. Plasmodium vivaxs,vivax, Plasmodium
D005616 French Guiana A French overseas department on the northeast coast of South America. Its capital is Cayenne. It was first settled by the French in 1604. Early development was hindered because of the presence of a penal colony. The name of the country and the capital are variants of Guyana, possibly from the native Indian Guarani guai (born) + ana (kin), implying a united and interrelated race of people. (From Webster's New Geographical Dictionary, 1988, p418 & Room, Brewer's Dictionary of Names, 1992, p195)
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D016778 Malaria, Falciparum Malaria caused by PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM. This is the severest form of malaria and is associated with the highest levels of parasites in the blood. This disease is characterized by irregularly recurring febrile paroxysms that in extreme cases occur with acute cerebral, renal, or gastrointestinal manifestations. Plasmodium falciparum Malaria,Malaria, Plasmodium falciparum
D016780 Malaria, Vivax Malaria caused by PLASMODIUM VIVAX. This form of malaria is less severe than MALARIA, FALCIPARUM, but there is a higher probability for relapses to occur. Febrile paroxysms often occur every other day. Plasmodium vivax Malaria,Malaria, Plasmodium vivax,Vivax Malaria

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