Measuring resilience and assessing vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change in South America. 2018

Luciano J S Anjos, and Peter Mann de Toledo
Campus de Parauapebas, Universidade Federal Rural da Amazônia - UFRA, Parauapebas, Pará, Brazil.

Climate change has been identified as the primary threat to the integrity and functioning of ecosystems in this century, although there is still much uncertainty about its effects and the degree of vulnerability for different ecosystems to this threat. Here we propose a new methodological approach capable of measuring and mapping the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems at large scales based on their climatic niche. To do this, we used high spatial resolution remote sensing data and ecological niche modeling techniques to calculate and spatialize the resilience of three stable states of ecosystems in South America: forest, savanna, and grassland. Also, we evaluated the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate stress, the likelihood of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions, and their respective adaptive capacities in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that forests, the most productive and biodiverse terrestrial ecosystems on the earth, are more vulnerable to climate change than savannas or grasslands. Forests showed less resistance to climate stress and a higher chance of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions. If this scenario occurs, the forest ecosystems would have less chance of adaptation compared to savannas or grasslands because of their narrow climate niche. Therefore, we can conclude that a possible consolidation of non-analogous climatic conditions would lead to a loss of resilience in the forest ecosystem, significantly increasing the chance of a critical transition event to another stable state with a lower density of vegetation cover (e.g., savanna or grassland).

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D000064 Acclimatization Adaptation to a new environment or to a change in the old. Acclimation
D000222 Adaptation, Physiological The non-genetic biological changes of an organism in response to challenges in its ENVIRONMENT. Adaptation, Physiologic,Adaptations, Physiologic,Adaptations, Physiological,Adaptive Plasticity,Phenotypic Plasticity,Physiological Adaptation,Physiologic Adaptation,Physiologic Adaptations,Physiological Adaptations,Plasticity, Adaptive,Plasticity, Phenotypic
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D013020 South America The southern continent of the Western Hemisphere, extending southward from the Colombia-Panama border.
D013312 Stress, Physiological The unfavorable effect of environmental factors (stressors) on the physiological functions of an organism. Prolonged unresolved physiological stress can affect HOMEOSTASIS of the organism, and may lead to damaging or pathological conditions. Biotic Stress,Metabolic Stress,Physiological Stress,Abiotic Stress,Abiotic Stress Reaction,Abiotic Stress Response,Biological Stress,Metabolic Stress Response,Physiological Stress Reaction,Physiological Stress Reactivity,Physiological Stress Response,Abiotic Stress Reactions,Abiotic Stress Responses,Abiotic Stresses,Biological Stresses,Biotic Stresses,Metabolic Stress Responses,Metabolic Stresses,Physiological Stress Reactions,Physiological Stress Responses,Physiological Stresses,Reaction, Abiotic Stress,Reactions, Abiotic Stress,Response, Abiotic Stress,Response, Metabolic Stress,Stress Reaction, Physiological,Stress Response, Metabolic,Stress Response, Physiological,Stress, Abiotic,Stress, Biological,Stress, Biotic,Stress, Metabolic
D014197 Trees Woody, usually tall, perennial higher plants (Angiosperms, Gymnosperms, and some Pterophyta) having usually a main stem and numerous branches. Tree
D017753 Ecosystem A functional system which includes the organisms of a natural community together with their environment. (McGraw Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 4th ed) Ecosystems,Biome,Ecologic System,Ecologic Systems,Ecological System,Habitat,Niche, Ecological,System, Ecological,Systems, Ecological,Biomes,Ecological Niche,Ecological Systems,Habitats,System, Ecologic,Systems, Ecologic
D044822 Biodiversity The variety of all native living organisms and their various forms and interrelationships. Biological Diversity,Diversity, Biological
D056727 Endangered Species An animal or plant species in danger of extinction. Causes can include human activity, changing climate, or change in predator/prey ratios. Threatened Species,Species, Endangered,Species, Threatened

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