Spatial-temporal characteristics and the epidemiology of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome from 2007 to 2016 in Zhejiang Province, China. 2018

Haocheng Wu, and XinYi Wang, and Ming Xue, and Chen Wu, and Qinbao Lu, and Zheyuan Ding, and Yujia Zhai, and Junfen Lin
Zhejiang Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China.

Zhejiang Province is one of the six provinces in China that has the highest incidence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). Data on HFRS cases in Zhejiang Province from January 2007 to July 2017 were obtained from the China Information Network System of Disease Prevention and Control. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to observe the trend of the incidence rate of HFRS. The monthly incidence rate was predicted by autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed to detect geographic clusters. A multivariate time series model was employed to analyze heterogeneous transmission of HFRS. There were a total of 4,836 HFRS cases, with 15 fatal cases reported in Zhejiang Province, China in the last decade. Results show that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the modelling performance and the forecasting performance of the ARIMA model were 27.53% and 16.29%, respectively. Male farmers and middle-aged patients account for the majority of the patient population. There were 54 high-high clusters and 1 high-low cluster identified at the county level. The random effect variance of the autoregressive component is 0.33; the spatio-temporal component is 1.30; and the endemic component is 2.45. According to the results, there was obvious spatial heterogeneity in the endemic component and spatio-temporal component but little spatial heterogeneity in the autoregressive component. A significant decreasing trend in the incidence rate was identified, and obvious clusters were discovered. Spatial heterogeneity in the factors driving HFRS transmission was discovered, which suggested that a targeted preventive effort should be considered in different districts based on their own main factors that contribute to the epidemics.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D002681 China A country spanning from central Asia to the Pacific Ocean. Inner Mongolia,Manchuria,People's Republic of China,Sinkiang,Mainland China
D005260 Female Females
D006480 Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome An acute febrile disease occurring predominately in Asia. It is characterized by fever, prostration, vomiting, hemorrhagic phenonema, shock, and renal failure. It is caused by any one of several closely related species of the genus ORTHOHANTAVIRUS. The most severe form is caused by HANTAAN VIRUS whose natural host is the rodent Apodemus agrarius. Milder forms are caused by SEOUL VIRUS and transmitted by the rodents Rattus rattus and R. norvegicus, and the PUUMALA VIRUS with transmission by Clethrionomys galreolus. HFRS,Hemorrhagic Fever, Epidemic,Hemorrhagic Fever, Korean,Hemorrhagic Nephroso-Nephritis,Nephropathia Epidemica,Epidemic Hemorrhagic Fever,Epidemic Hemorrhagic Fevers,Hemorrhagic Fevers, Epidemic,Hemorrhagic Nephroso Nephritis,Hemorrhagic Nephroso-Nephritides,Korean Hemorrhagic Fever,Nephroso-Nephritides, Hemorrhagic,Nephroso-Nephritis, Hemorrhagic
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly
D012621 Seasons Divisions of the year according to some regularly recurrent phenomena usually astronomical or climatic. (From McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed) Seasonal Variation,Season,Seasonal Variations,Variation, Seasonal,Variations, Seasonal

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