Mathematical modeling of dengue epidemic: control methods and vaccination strategies. 2019

Sylvestre Aureliano Carvalho, and Stella Olivia da Silva, and Iraziet da Cunha Charret
Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, Minas Gerais, 36570-900, Brazil.

Dengue is, in terms of death and economic cost, one of the most important infectious diseases in the world. So, its mathematical modeling can be a valuable tool to help us to understand the dynamics of the disease and to infer about its spreading by the proposition of control methods. In this paper, control strategies, which aim to eliminate the Aedes aegypti mosquito, as well as proposals for the vaccination campaign are evaluated. In our mathematical model, the mechanical control is accomplished through the environmental support capacity affected by a discrete function that represents the removal of breedings. Chemical control is carried out using insecticide and larvicide. The efficiency of vaccination is studied through the transfer of a fraction of individuals, proportional to the vaccination rate, from the susceptible to the recovered compartments. Our major find is that the dengue fever epidemic is only eradicated with the use of an immunizing vaccine because control measures, directed against its vector, are not enough to halt the disease spreading. Even when the infected mosquitoes are eliminated from the system, the susceptible ones are still present, and infected humans cause dengue fever to reappear in the human population.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007306 Insecticides Pesticides designed to control insects that are harmful to man. The insects may be directly harmful, as those acting as disease vectors, or indirectly harmful, as destroyers of crops, food products, or textile fabrics. Insecticide
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D009033 Culicidae A family of the order DIPTERA that comprises the mosquitoes. The larval stages are aquatic, and the adults can be recognized by the characteristic WINGS, ANIMAL venation, the scales along the wing veins, and the long proboscis. Many species are of particular medical importance. Mosquitoes,Mosquitos,Mosquito
D010058 Oviposition The process of laying or shedding fully developed eggs (OVA) from the female body. The term is usually used for certain INSECTS or FISHES with an organ called ovipositor where eggs are stored or deposited before expulsion from the body. Larviposition,Larvipositions,Ovipositions
D011336 Probability The study of chance processes or the relative frequency characterizing a chance process. Probabilities
D002980 Climate The longterm manifestations of WEATHER. (McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed) Climates
D003198 Computer Simulation Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes. Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D003715 Dengue An acute febrile disease transmitted by the bite of AEDES mosquitoes infected with DENGUE VIRUS. It is self-limiting and characterized by fever, myalgia, headache, and rash. SEVERE DENGUE is a more virulent form of dengue. Dengue Fever,Break-Bone Fever,Breakbone Fever,Classical Dengue,Classical Dengue Fever,Break Bone Fever,Classical Dengue Fevers,Classical Dengues,Dengue Fever, Classical,Dengue, Classical,Fever, Break-Bone,Fever, Breakbone,Fever, Dengue
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000072138 Mosquito Vectors Mosquitoes (members of the family CULICIDAE) that transmit pathogens or their intermediate forms from one host to another. Mosquito Vector,Vector, Mosquito,Vectors, Mosquito

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