Biomaterial Database

Mathematical modeling of epidemic syphilis transmission. Implications for syphilis control programs. 1996

G L Oxman, and K Smolkowski, and J Noell

Multnomah County Health Department, Portland, Oregon, USA.

OBJECTIVE The past 10 years' wave of syphilis epidemics has challenged syphilis control programs. Although apparently connected to drugs-for-sex trading of crack cocaine, the genesis and resolution of these epidemics is poorly understood. OBJECTIVE The goals of this study were to develop a mathematical model of epidemic syphilis transmission based on empiric data, to stimulate and ascertain behavioral and sociologic features necessary to produce epidemic transmission, and to explore mechanisms leading to resolution of epidemic transmission. METHODS The study used multi-compartment iterative computer simulation using empirically derived input data. RESULTS Epidemic transmission resulted from adding a small core group of individuals with very high levels of partner exchange (300-400 partners per year) to a population with levels of partner exchange seen in the general population. Epidemic resolution could result from immunity or subtle changes in the size or partner exchange rate of the core group. CONCLUSIONS There is a need for sexually transmitted disease control programs to reevaluate their approach to prevention and control of epidemic syphilis in light of data on transmission dynamics.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D008297	Male		Males
D008954	Models, Biological	Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.	Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D009922	Oregon	State bounded on the north by Washington, on the east by Idaho, on the south by California and Nevada, and on the west by the Pacific Ocean.
D011156	Population Density	Number of individuals in a population relative to space.	Overpopulation,Population Size,Underpopulation,Densities, Population,Density, Population,Population Densities,Population Sizes
D003198	Computer Simulation	Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes.	Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D004196	Disease Outbreaks	Sudden increase in the incidence of a disease. The concept includes EPIDEMICS and PANDEMICS.	Outbreaks,Infectious Disease Outbreaks,Disease Outbreak,Disease Outbreak, Infectious,Disease Outbreaks, Infectious,Infectious Disease Outbreak,Outbreak, Disease,Outbreak, Infectious Disease,Outbreaks, Disease,Outbreaks, Infectious Disease
D005260	Female		Females
D006801	Humans	Members of the species Homo sapiens.	Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000293	Adolescent	A person 13 to 18 years of age.	Adolescence,Youth,Adolescents,Adolescents, Female,Adolescents, Male,Teenagers,Teens,Adolescent, Female,Adolescent, Male,Female Adolescent,Female Adolescents,Male Adolescent,Male Adolescents,Teen,Teenager,Youths
D000328	Adult	A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available.	Adults