Drivers of Increasing Emergency Ambulance Demand. 2020

Emily Andrew, and Ziad Nehme, and Peter Cameron, and Karen Smith

Objectives: Although the factors driving emergency department demand have been extensively investigated, a comparatively minimal amount is known about the factors that are driving an increase in emergency ambulance demand. Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational study of consecutive cases attended by Ambulance Victoria in Melbourne, Australia from 2008 to 2015. Incidence rates were calculated, and adjusted time series regression analyses were performed to assess the driving factors of ambulance demand. Results: A total of 2,443,952 consecutive cases were included. Demand grew by 29.2% over the 8-year period. The age-specific incidence increased significantly over time for patients aged < 60 years, but not for patients aged ≥ 60 years. After adjustment for seasonality and population growth, demand increased by 1.4% per annum (incident rate ratio [IRR] = 1.014 [1.011-1.017]). The largest annual growth in demand was observed in patients with a history of mental health issues (IRR = 1.058 [1.054-1.062]), alcohol/drug abuse (IRR = 1.061 [1.056-1.066]), or a Charlson Comorbidity Index [CCI] score ≥ 4 (IRR = 1.045 [1.039-1.051]). Cases involving patients of relative socio-economic/educational disadvantage, younger age, or with no preexisting health conditions according to the CCI also grew faster than the overall patient population. Cases requiring transport to hospital increased by 1.2% annually (IRR = 1.012 [1.009-1.016]), although patients not requiring medical intervention from paramedics increased by 6.7% annually (IRR = 1.067 [1.063-1.072]). Conclusions: Increases in ambulance demand exceeded population growth. Emergency ambulances were increasingly utilized for transport of patients who did not require medical intervention from paramedics. Identifying the characteristics of patients driving ambulance demand will enable targeted demand management strategies.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D004632 Emergency Medical Services Services specifically designed, staffed, and equipped for the emergency care of patients. Emergency Care,Emergency Health Services,Emergicenters,Prehospital Emergency Care,Emergency Care, Prehospital,Emergency Services, Medical,Medical Services, Emergency,Services, Emergency Medical,Emergency Health Service,Emergency Medical Service,Emergency Service, Medical,Emergicenter,Health Service, Emergency,Health Services, Emergency,Medical Emergency Service,Medical Emergency Services,Medical Service, Emergency,Service, Emergency Health,Service, Emergency Medical,Service, Medical Emergency,Services, Emergency Health,Services, Medical Emergency
D004636 Emergency Service, Hospital Hospital department responsible for the administration and provision of immediate medical or surgical care to the emergency patient. Emergency Outpatient Unit,Emergency Services Utilization,Hospital Emergency Room,Hospital Emergency Service,Hospital Emergency Services Utilization,Accident and Emergency Department,Emergency Departments,Emergency Hospital Service,Emergency Room,Emergency Units,Emergency Ward,Hospital Service Emergency,Service, Hospital Emergency,Department, Emergency,Departments, Emergency,Emergencies, Hospital Service,Emergency Department,Emergency Hospital Services,Emergency Outpatient Units,Emergency Room, Hospital,Emergency Rooms,Emergency Rooms, Hospital,Emergency Services, Hospital,Emergency Unit,Emergency Wards,Emergency, Hospital Service,Hospital Emergency Rooms,Hospital Emergency Services,Hospital Service Emergencies,Hospital Service, Emergency,Hospital Services, Emergency,Outpatient Unit, Emergency,Outpatient Units, Emergency,Room, Emergency,Room, Hospital Emergency,Rooms, Emergency,Rooms, Hospital Emergency,Service Emergencies, Hospital,Service Emergency, Hospital,Service, Emergency Hospital,Services Utilization, Emergency,Services Utilizations, Emergency,Services, Emergency Hospital,Services, Hospital Emergency,Unit, Emergency,Unit, Emergency Outpatient,Units, Emergency,Units, Emergency Outpatient,Utilization, Emergency Services,Ward, Emergency,Wards, Emergency
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000552 Ambulances A vehicle equipped for transporting patients in need of emergency care. Emergency Mobile Units,Mobile Emergency Units,Ambulance,Emergency Mobile Unit,Emergency Unit, Mobile,Emergency Units, Mobile,Mobile Emergency Unit,Mobile Unit, Emergency,Mobile Units, Emergency,Unit, Emergency Mobile,Unit, Mobile Emergency,Units, Emergency Mobile,Units, Mobile Emergency
D012189 Retrospective Studies Studies used to test etiologic hypotheses in which inferences about an exposure to putative causal factors are derived from data relating to characteristics of persons under study or to events or experiences in their past. The essential feature is that some of the persons under study have the disease or outcome of interest and their characteristics are compared with those of unaffected persons. Retrospective Study,Studies, Retrospective,Study, Retrospective
D014739 Victoria A state in southeastern Australia, the southernmost state. Its capital is Melbourne. It was discovered in 1770 by Captain Cook and first settled by immigrants from Tasmania. In 1851 it was separated from New South Wales as a separate colony. Self-government was introduced in 1851; it became a state in 1901. It was named for Queen Victoria in 1851. (From Webster's New Geographical Dictionary, 1988, p1295 & Room, Brewer's Dictionary of Names, p574)

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