Forecasting daily emergency ambulance service demand using biometeorological indexes. 2023

Ho Ting Wong
Department of Business Administration, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan. frankwong@connect.hku.hk.

This study aims to study the effectiveness of using biometeorological indexes in the development of a daily emergency ambulance service demand forecast system for Taipei City, Taiwan, compared to typical weather factors. Around 370,000 emergency ambulance service patient records were aggregated into a daily emergency ambulance service demand time series as the study's dependent variable. To assess the effectiveness of biometeorological indexes in making a 1 to 7-day forecast of daily emergency ambulance service demand, five forecast models were developed to make the comparison. The model with average temperature as the only predictor performed the best consistently from 1 to 7-day forecasts. The models with net effective temperature and apparent temperature as their only predictors ranked second and third, respectively. It is surprising that the model with both average temperature and relative humidity as predictors only ranked fourth. The unexpected outperformance of average temperature over net effective temperature and apparent temperature in forecasting daily emergency ambulance service demand suggested the need to develop updated locational-specific biometeorological indexes so that the benefit of the indexes can be fully utilized. Although adopting popular biometeorological indexes that are already available would be cheap and convenient, the benefit from these general indexes may not be guaranteed.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008685 Meteorological Concepts The atmospheric properties, characteristics and other atmospheric phenomena especially pertaining to WEATHER or CLIMATE. Meteorological Factors,Meteorologic Factors,Concept, Meteorological,Concepts, Meteorological,Factor, Meteorologic,Factor, Meteorological,Factors, Meteorologic,Factors, Meteorological,Meteorologic Factor,Meteorological Concept,Meteorological Factor
D004781 Environmental Exposure The exposure to potentially harmful chemical, physical, or biological agents in the environment or to environmental factors that may include ionizing radiation, pathogenic organisms, or toxic chemicals. Exposure, Environmental,Environmental Exposures,Exposures, Environmental
D005544 Forecasting The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology. Futurology,Projections and Predictions,Future,Predictions and Projections
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000552 Ambulances A vehicle equipped for transporting patients in need of emergency care. Emergency Mobile Units,Mobile Emergency Units,Ambulance,Emergency Mobile Unit,Emergency Unit, Mobile,Emergency Units, Mobile,Mobile Emergency Unit,Mobile Unit, Emergency,Mobile Units, Emergency,Unit, Emergency Mobile,Unit, Mobile Emergency,Units, Emergency Mobile,Units, Mobile Emergency
D013696 Temperature The property of objects that determines the direction of heat flow when they are placed in direct thermal contact. The temperature is the energy of microscopic motions (vibrational and translational) of the particles of atoms. Temperatures
D014887 Weather The state of the ATMOSPHERE over minutes to months. Fog,Fogs
D055904 Meteorology The science of studying the characteristics of the atmosphere such as its temperature, density, winds, clouds, precipitation, and other atmospheric phenomena and aiming to account for the weather in terms of external influences and the basic laws of physics. (From McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed) Biometeorology,Climatology

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