Deep Learning to Assess Long-term Mortality From Chest Radiographs. 2019

Michael T Lu, and Alexander Ivanov, and Thomas Mayrhofer, and Ahmed Hosny, and Hugo J W L Aerts, and Udo Hoffmann
Cardiovascular Imaging Research Center, Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston.

Chest radiography is the most common diagnostic imaging test in medicine and may also provide information about longevity and prognosis. To develop and test a convolutional neural network (CNN) (named CXR-risk) to predict long-term mortality, including noncancer death, from chest radiographs. In this prognostic study, CXR-risk CNN development (n = 41 856) and testing (n = 10 464) used data from the screening radiography arm of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) (n = 52 320), a community cohort of asymptomatic nonsmokers and smokers (aged 55-74 years) enrolled at 10 US sites from November 8, 1993, through July 2, 2001. External testing used data from the screening radiography arm of the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) (n = 5493), a community cohort of heavy smokers (aged 55-74 years) enrolled at 21 US sites from August 2002, through April 2004. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 2018, to May 23, 2019. Deep learning CXR-risk score (very low, low, moderate, high, and very high) based on CNN analysis of the enrollment radiograph. All-cause mortality. Prognostic value was assessed in the context of radiologists' diagnostic findings (eg, lung nodule) and standard risk factors (eg, age, sex, and diabetes) and for cause-specific mortality. Among 10 464 PLCO participants (mean [SD] age, 62.4 [5.4] years; 5405 men [51.6%]; median follow-up, 12.2 years [interquartile range, 10.5-12.9 years]) and 5493 NLST test participants (mean [SD] age, 61.7 [5.0] years; 3037 men [55.3%]; median follow-up, 6.3 years [interquartile range, 6.0-6.7 years]), there was a graded association between CXR-risk score and mortality. The very high-risk group had mortality of 53.0% (PLCO) and 33.9% (NLST), which was higher compared with the very low-risk group (PLCO: unadjusted hazard ratio [HR], 18.3 [95% CI, 14.5-23.2]; NLST: unadjusted HR, 15.2 [95% CI, 9.2-25.3]; both P < .001). This association was robust to adjustment for radiologists' findings and risk factors (PLCO: adjusted HR [aHR], 4.8 [95% CI, 3.6-6.4]; NLST: aHR, 7.0 [95% CI, 4.0-12.1]; both P < .001). Comparable results were seen for lung cancer death (PLCO: aHR, 11.1 [95% CI, 4.4-27.8]; NLST: aHR, 8.4 [95% CI, 2.5-28.0]; both P ≤ .001) and for noncancer cardiovascular death (PLCO: aHR, 3.6 [95% CI, 2.1-6.2]; NLST: aHR, 47.8 [95% CI, 6.1-374.9]; both P < .001) and respiratory death (PLCO: aHR, 27.5 [95% CI, 7.7-97.8]; NLST: aHR, 31.9 [95% CI, 3.9-263.5]; both P ≤ .001). In this study, the deep learning CXR-risk score stratified the risk of long-term mortality based on a single chest radiograph. Individuals at high risk of mortality may benefit from prevention, screening, and lifestyle interventions.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008171 Lung Diseases Pathological processes involving any part of the LUNG. Pulmonary Diseases,Disease, Pulmonary,Diseases, Pulmonary,Pulmonary Disease,Disease, Lung,Diseases, Lung,Lung Disease
D008297 Male Males
D008403 Mass Screening Organized periodic procedures performed on large groups of people for the purpose of detecting disease. Screening,Mass Screenings,Screening, Mass,Screenings,Screenings, Mass
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D011379 Prognosis A prediction of the probable outcome of a disease based on a individual's condition and the usual course of the disease as seen in similar situations. Prognostic Factor,Prognostic Factors,Factor, Prognostic,Factors, Prognostic,Prognoses
D002318 Cardiovascular Diseases Pathological conditions involving the CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEM including the HEART; the BLOOD VESSELS; or the PERICARDIUM. Adverse Cardiac Event,Cardiac Events,Major Adverse Cardiac Events,Adverse Cardiac Events,Cardiac Event,Cardiac Event, Adverse,Cardiac Events, Adverse,Cardiovascular Disease,Disease, Cardiovascular,Event, Cardiac
D002986 Clinical Trials as Topic Works about pre-planned studies of the safety, efficacy, or optimum dosage schedule (if appropriate) of one or more diagnostic, therapeutic, or prophylactic drugs, devices, or techniques selected according to predetermined criteria of eligibility and observed for predefined evidence of favorable and unfavorable effects. This concept includes clinical trials conducted both in the U.S. and in other countries. Clinical Trial as Topic
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000077321 Deep Learning Supervised or unsupervised machine learning methods that use multiple layers of data representations generated by nonlinear transformations, instead of individual task-specific ALGORITHMS, to build and train neural network models. Hierarchical Learning,Learning, Deep,Learning, Hierarchical

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