Validation of a prospective mortality prediction score for hip fracture patients. 2021

Jordan Etscheidt, and Michael McHugh, and Joanne Wu, and Mark E Cowen, and James Goulet, and Mark Hake
Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, University of Michigan, Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA.

OBJECTIVE Although mortality prediction tools are the subject of significant interest as components of comprehensive hip fracture protocols, few have been applied or validated to prospectively inform ongoing patient management. Five regional hospitals are currently generating real-time mortality risk scores for all adults at the time of admission using available laboratory and comorbidity data (Cowen et al. J Hosp Med 9(11):720-726, 2014). Although results for aggregated conditions have been published, the primary aim of this study is to determine how well prospectively calculated scores predict mortality for hip fracture patients specifically. METHODS Using a five-hospital database, 1376 patients who were prospectively scored on admission were identified from January 2013 to April 2017, cross-referencing ICD9/10 diagnosis and procedure codes for AO/OTA 31A1 through 31B3 fractures. Prospective mortality scores have been previously divided into 5 risk categories to facilitate ease of clinical use. Vital status was determined from hospital data, Social Security and Michigan Death Indices. RESULTS Prospective scores demonstrated good mortality prediction, with AUCs of 0.80, 0.73, 0.74 and 0.74 for in hospital, 30-, 60- and 90-day mortality, respectively. Patients in the top 2 mortality risk categories represented 30% (410/1376) of the cohort and accounted for 78% (25/32) of the inpatient and 59% (57/97) of the 30 day deaths. CONCLUSIONS Implementation of this real-time mortality risk tool is feasible and valid for the prediction of short- to medium-term mortality risk for hip fracture patients, and potentially offers valuable information to guide ongoing patient management decisions such as admitting service or level of care.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011446 Prospective Studies Observation of a population for a sufficient number of persons over a sufficient number of years to generate incidence or mortality rates subsequent to the selection of the study group. Prospective Study,Studies, Prospective,Study, Prospective
D006620 Hip Fractures Fractures of the FEMUR HEAD; the FEMUR NECK; (FEMORAL NECK FRACTURES); the trochanters; or the inter- or subtrochanteric region. Excludes fractures of the acetabulum and fractures of the femoral shaft below the subtrochanteric region (FEMORAL FRACTURES). Femoral Trochlear Fractures,Intertrochanteric Fractures,Subtrochanteric Fractures,Trochanteric Fractures,Trochlear Fractures, Femur,Femoral Trochlear Fracture,Femur Trochlear Fracture,Femur Trochlear Fractures,Fracture, Femoral Trochlear,Fracture, Femur Trochlear,Fractures, Femoral Trochlear,Fractures, Femur Trochlear,Fractures, Hip,Fractures, Intertrochanteric,Fractures, Subtrochanteric,Fractures, Trochanteric,Trochlear Fracture, Femoral,Trochlear Fracture, Femur,Trochlear Fractures, Femoral
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D012307 Risk Factors An aspect of personal behavior or lifestyle, environmental exposure, inborn or inherited characteristic, which, based on epidemiological evidence, is known to be associated with a health-related condition considered important to prevent. Health Correlates,Risk Factor Scores,Risk Scores,Social Risk Factors,Population at Risk,Populations at Risk,Correlates, Health,Factor, Risk,Factor, Social Risk,Factors, Social Risk,Risk Factor,Risk Factor Score,Risk Factor, Social,Risk Factors, Social,Risk Score,Score, Risk,Score, Risk Factor,Social Risk Factor
D015331 Cohort Studies Studies in which subsets of a defined population are identified. These groups may or may not be exposed to factors hypothesized to influence the probability of the occurrence of a particular disease or other outcome. Cohorts are defined populations which, as a whole, are followed in an attempt to determine distinguishing subgroup characteristics. Birth Cohort Studies,Birth Cohort Study,Closed Cohort Studies,Cohort Analysis,Concurrent Studies,Historical Cohort Studies,Incidence Studies,Analysis, Cohort,Cohort Studies, Closed,Cohort Studies, Historical,Studies, Closed Cohort,Studies, Concurrent,Studies, Historical Cohort,Analyses, Cohort,Closed Cohort Study,Cohort Analyses,Cohort Studies, Birth,Cohort Study,Cohort Study, Birth,Cohort Study, Closed,Cohort Study, Historical,Concurrent Study,Historical Cohort Study,Incidence Study,Studies, Birth Cohort,Studies, Cohort,Studies, Incidence,Study, Birth Cohort,Study, Closed Cohort,Study, Cohort,Study, Concurrent,Study, Historical Cohort,Study, Incidence
D015897 Comorbidity The presence of co-existing or additional diseases with reference to an initial diagnosis or with reference to the index condition that is the subject of study. Comorbidity may affect the ability of affected individuals to function and also their survival; it may be used as a prognostic indicator for length of hospital stay, cost factors, and outcome or survival.
D017052 Hospital Mortality A vital statistic measuring or recording the rate of death from any cause in hospitalized populations. In-Hospital Mortality,Mortality, Hospital,Hospital Mortalities,In Hospital Mortalities,In Hospital Mortality,Inhospital Mortalities,Inhospital Mortality,Mortalities, In-house,Mortalities, Inhospital,Mortality, In-Hospital,Mortality, Inhospital,Hospital Mortalities, In,Hospital Mortality, In,In-Hospital Mortalities,In-house Mortalities,In-house Mortality,Mortalities, Hospital,Mortalities, In Hospital,Mortalities, In house,Mortalities, In-Hospital,Mortality, In Hospital,Mortality, In-house

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