Validation of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) for the prediction of 30-day mortality in a Swedish cohort of hip fractures. 2021

Fredrik Olsen, and Fredrika Lundborg, and Johan Kristiansson, and Mathias Hård Af Segerstad, and Sven-Erik Ricksten, and Bengt Nellgård
Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Mölndal, Sweden.

BACKGROUND Hip fracture is a common osteoporotic fracture with great morbidity and mortality. The utility of ASA classification is limited, as most patients are ≥ASA 3. A reliable predictor of mortality risk could support decision-making. We aimed to evaluate Nottingham hip fracture score (NHFS) for the prediction of 30-day mortality and then to recalibrate the formula converting NHFS to risk of 30-day mortality. METHODS All patients >60 years with surgically treated hip fracture surgery during 2015-16 were assessed. Data was extracted manually from routinely collected clinical data in registry and medical records. Discriminative performance of NHFS and ASA was assessed with C-statistics. The conversion formula from NHFS to risk of 30-day mortality was recalibrated using logistic binominal regression. Observed vs expected ratios of 30-day mortality were compared with the 2012 NHFS-formula and recalibration was performed in a split dataset. RESULTS 1864 patients were included, with 213 deaths within 30 days. C-statistic were 0.64 for NHFS and 0.62 for ASA. Comparing expected values from the 2012-revision with our observed deaths gave a ratio of 1.37. Relating predicted levels of 30-day mortality based on 70% of our cohort vs. 30% test portion of our Swedish dataset gave a ratio of 0.97. CONCLUSIONS NHFS underestimated mortality in our cohort and showed poor discrimination. Revision of the formula based on a split dataset improved calibration. We suggest NHFS to be routinely implemented to support clinical judgements, expand preoperative assessment and escalate intraoperative monitoring.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D006620 Hip Fractures Fractures of the FEMUR HEAD; the FEMUR NECK; (FEMORAL NECK FRACTURES); the trochanters; or the inter- or subtrochanteric region. Excludes fractures of the acetabulum and fractures of the femoral shaft below the subtrochanteric region (FEMORAL FRACTURES). Femoral Trochlear Fractures,Intertrochanteric Fractures,Subtrochanteric Fractures,Trochanteric Fractures,Trochlear Fractures, Femur,Femoral Trochlear Fracture,Femur Trochlear Fracture,Femur Trochlear Fractures,Fracture, Femoral Trochlear,Fracture, Femur Trochlear,Fractures, Femoral Trochlear,Fractures, Femur Trochlear,Fractures, Hip,Fractures, Intertrochanteric,Fractures, Subtrochanteric,Fractures, Trochanteric,Trochlear Fracture, Femoral,Trochlear Fracture, Femur,Trochlear Fractures, Femoral
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D012189 Retrospective Studies Studies used to test etiologic hypotheses in which inferences about an exposure to putative causal factors are derived from data relating to characteristics of persons under study or to events or experiences in their past. The essential feature is that some of the persons under study have the disease or outcome of interest and their characteristics are compared with those of unaffected persons. Retrospective Study,Studies, Retrospective,Study, Retrospective
D012307 Risk Factors An aspect of personal behavior or lifestyle, environmental exposure, inborn or inherited characteristic, which, based on epidemiological evidence, is known to be associated with a health-related condition considered important to prevent. Health Correlates,Risk Factor Scores,Risk Scores,Social Risk Factors,Population at Risk,Populations at Risk,Correlates, Health,Factor, Risk,Factor, Social Risk,Factors, Social Risk,Risk Factor,Risk Factor Score,Risk Factor, Social,Risk Factors, Social,Risk Score,Score, Risk,Score, Risk Factor,Social Risk Factor
D013548 Sweden Country in northern Europe, bordering the Baltic Sea, between Finland and Norway. The capital is Stockholm.
D015331 Cohort Studies Studies in which subsets of a defined population are identified. These groups may or may not be exposed to factors hypothesized to influence the probability of the occurrence of a particular disease or other outcome. Cohorts are defined populations which, as a whole, are followed in an attempt to determine distinguishing subgroup characteristics. Birth Cohort Studies,Birth Cohort Study,Closed Cohort Studies,Cohort Analysis,Concurrent Studies,Historical Cohort Studies,Incidence Studies,Analysis, Cohort,Cohort Studies, Closed,Cohort Studies, Historical,Studies, Closed Cohort,Studies, Concurrent,Studies, Historical Cohort,Analyses, Cohort,Closed Cohort Study,Cohort Analyses,Cohort Studies, Birth,Cohort Study,Cohort Study, Birth,Cohort Study, Closed,Cohort Study, Historical,Concurrent Study,Historical Cohort Study,Incidence Study,Studies, Birth Cohort,Studies, Cohort,Studies, Incidence,Study, Birth Cohort,Study, Closed Cohort,Study, Cohort,Study, Concurrent,Study, Historical Cohort,Study, Incidence
D017052 Hospital Mortality A vital statistic measuring or recording the rate of death from any cause in hospitalized populations. In-Hospital Mortality,Mortality, Hospital,Hospital Mortalities,In Hospital Mortalities,In Hospital Mortality,Inhospital Mortalities,Inhospital Mortality,Mortalities, In-house,Mortalities, Inhospital,Mortality, In-Hospital,Mortality, Inhospital,Hospital Mortalities, In,Hospital Mortality, In,In-Hospital Mortalities,In-house Mortalities,In-house Mortality,Mortalities, Hospital,Mortalities, In Hospital,Mortalities, In house,Mortalities, In-Hospital,Mortality, In Hospital,Mortality, In-house

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