Predicting major bleeding among hospitalized patients using oral anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation after discharge. 2021

Jakub Z Qazi, and Mireille E Schnitzer, and Robert Côté, and Marie-Josée Martel, and Marc Dorais, and Sylvie Perreault
Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

Real-world predictors of major bleeding (MB) have been well-studied among warfarin users, but not among all direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) users diagnosed with atrial fibrillation (AF). Thus, our goal was to build a predictive model of MB for new users of all oral anticoagulants (OAC) with AF. We identified patients hospitalized for any cause and discharged alive in the community from 2011 to 2017 with a primary or secondary diagnosis of AF in Quebec's RAMQ and Med-Echo administrative databases. Cohort entry occurred at the first OAC claim. Patients were categorized according to OAC type. Outcomes were incident MB, gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB), non-GI extracranial bleeding (NGIB) and intracranial bleeding within 1 year of follow-up. Covariates included age, sex, co-morbidities (within 3 years before cohort entry) and medication use (within 2 weeks before cohort entry). We used logistic-LASSO and adaptive logistic-LASSO regressions to identify MB predictors among OAC users. Discrimination and calibration were assessed for each model and a global model was selected. Subgroup analyses were performed for MB subtypes and OAC types. Our cohort consisted of 14,741 warfarin, 3,722 dabigatran, 6,722 rivaroxaban and 11,196 apixaban users aged 70-86 years old. The important MB predictors were age, prior MB and liver disease with ORs ranging from 1.37-1.64. The final model had a c-statistic of 0.63 (95% CI 0.60-0.65) with adequate calibration. The GIB and NGIB models had similar c-statistics of 0.65 (95% CI 0.63-0.66) and 0.67 (95% CI 0.64-0.70), respectively. MB and MB subtype predictors were similar among DOAC and warfarin users. The predictors selected by our models and their discriminative potential are concordant with published data. Thus, these models can be useful tools for future pharmacoepidemiologic studies involving older oral anticoagulant users with AF.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D011720 Pyrazoles Azoles of two nitrogens at the 1,2 positions, next to each other, in contrast with IMIDAZOLES in which they are at the 1,3 positions.
D011728 Pyridones Pyridine derivatives with one or more keto groups on the ring. Pyridinones
D012044 Regression Analysis Procedures for finding the mathematical function which best describes the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. In linear regression (see LINEAR MODELS) the relationship is constrained to be a straight line and LEAST-SQUARES ANALYSIS is used to determine the best fit. In logistic regression (see LOGISTIC MODELS) the dependent variable is qualitative rather than continuously variable and LIKELIHOOD FUNCTIONS are used to find the best relationship. In multiple regression, the dependent variable is considered to depend on more than a single independent variable. Regression Diagnostics,Statistical Regression,Analysis, Regression,Analyses, Regression,Diagnostics, Regression,Regression Analyses,Regression, Statistical,Regressions, Statistical,Statistical Regressions
D005260 Female Females
D006470 Hemorrhage Bleeding or escape of blood from a vessel. Bleeding,Hemorrhages
D006471 Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage Bleeding in any segment of the GASTROINTESTINAL TRACT from ESOPHAGUS to RECTUM. Hematochezia,Hemorrhage, Gastrointestinal,Gastrointestinal Hemorrhages,Hematochezias
D006760 Hospitalization The confinement of a patient in a hospital. Hospitalizations
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000069552 Rivaroxaban A morpholine and thiophene derivative that functions as a FACTOR XA INHIBITOR and is used in the treatment and prevention of DEEP-VEIN THROMBOSIS and PULMONARY EMBOLISM. It is also used for the prevention of STROKE and systemic embolization in patients with non-valvular ATRIAL FIBRILLATION, and for the prevention of atherothrombotic events in patients after an ACUTE CORONARY SYNDROME. 5-chloro-N-(((5S)-2-oxo-3-(4-(3-oxomorpholin-4-yl)phenyl)-1,3-oxazolidin-5-yl)methyl)thiophene-2-carboxamide,BAY 59-7939,Xarelto,BAY 59 7939,BAY 597939

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