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New score for predicting major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation using direct oral anticoagulants. 2023

Jiana Chen, and Meina Lv, and Wenlin Xu, and Feilong Zhang, and Nianxu Huang, and Xia Chen, and Wang Zhang, and Wei Hu, and Jun Su, and Hengfen Dai, and Ping Gu, and Xiaohong Huang, and Xiaoming Du, and Ruijuan Li, and Qiaowei Zheng, and Xiangsheng Lin, and Yanxia Zhang, and Yuxin Liu, and Min Zhang, and Xiumei Liu, and Zhu Zhu, and Jianjun Sun, and Jinhua Zhang
Department of Pharmacy, Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital College of Clinical Medicine for Obstetrics & Gynecology and Pediatrics, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China.

Our aim was to identify factors associated with major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) on direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) and to construct and externally validate a predictive model that would provide a validated tool for clinical assessment of major bleeding. In the development cohort, prediction model was built by logistic regression, the area under the curve (AUC), and Nomogram. External validation, analytical identification and calibration of the model using AUC, calibration curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The development cohort consisted of 4209 patients from 7 centers and the external validation cohort consisted of 1800 patients from 12 centers. Multifactorial analysis showed that age > 65 years, history of bleeding, anemia, vascular disease, antiplatelet therapy/non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and rivaroxaban were independent risk factors for major bleeding, and gastrointestinal protective agents was a protective factor. The Alfalfa-MB model was constructed using these seven factors (AUC = 0.807), and in the external validation cohort, the model showed good discriminatory power (AUC = 0.743) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P value of 0.205). The predictive power of the six bleeding scores was ORBIT (AUC = 0.706), HAS-BLED (AUC = 0.648), ATRIA (AUC = 0.645), HEMORR2 HAGES (AUC = 0.632), ABC (AUC = 0.619) and Shireman (AUC = 0.599) in descending order. Based on 7 factors, we derived and externally validated a predictive model for major bleeding with DOACs in patients with AF (Alfalfa-MB). The model has good predictive value and may be an effective tool to help reduce the occurrence of major bleeding in patients with DOACs.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D006470 Hemorrhage Bleeding or escape of blood from a vessel. Bleeding,Hemorrhages
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly
D000925 Anticoagulants Agents that prevent BLOOD CLOTTING. Anticoagulant Agent,Anticoagulant Drug,Anticoagulant,Anticoagulant Agents,Anticoagulant Drugs,Anticoagulation Agents,Indirect Thrombin Inhibitors,Agent, Anticoagulant,Agents, Anticoagulant,Agents, Anticoagulation,Drug, Anticoagulant,Drugs, Anticoagulant,Inhibitors, Indirect Thrombin,Thrombin Inhibitors, Indirect
D001281 Atrial Fibrillation Abnormal cardiac rhythm that is characterized by rapid, uncoordinated firing of electrical impulses in the upper chambers of the heart (HEART ATRIA). In such case, blood cannot be effectively pumped into the lower chambers of the heart (HEART VENTRICLES). It is caused by abnormal impulse generation. Auricular Fibrillation,Familial Atrial Fibrillation,Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation,Persistent Atrial Fibrillation,Atrial Fibrillation, Familial,Atrial Fibrillation, Paroxysmal,Atrial Fibrillation, Persistent,Atrial Fibrillations,Atrial Fibrillations, Familial,Atrial Fibrillations, Paroxysmal,Atrial Fibrillations, Persistent,Auricular Fibrillations,Familial Atrial Fibrillations,Fibrillation, Atrial,Fibrillation, Auricular,Fibrillation, Familial Atrial,Fibrillation, Paroxysmal Atrial,Fibrillation, Persistent Atrial,Fibrillations, Atrial,Fibrillations, Auricular,Fibrillations, Familial Atrial,Fibrillations, Paroxysmal Atrial,Fibrillations, Persistent Atrial,Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillations,Persistent Atrial Fibrillations
D012307 Risk Factors An aspect of personal behavior or lifestyle, environmental exposure, inborn or inherited characteristic, which, based on epidemiological evidence, is known to be associated with a health-related condition considered important to prevent. Health Correlates,Risk Factor Scores,Risk Scores,Social Risk Factors,Population at Risk,Populations at Risk,Correlates, Health,Factor, Risk,Factor, Social Risk,Factors, Social Risk,Risk Factor,Risk Factor Score,Risk Factor, Social,Risk Factors, Social,Risk Score,Score, Risk,Score, Risk Factor,Social Risk Factor
D018570 Risk Assessment The qualitative or quantitative estimation of the likelihood of adverse effects that may result from exposure to specified health hazards or from the absence of beneficial influences. (Last, Dictionary of Epidemiology, 1988) Assessment, Risk,Benefit-Risk Assessment,Risk Analysis,Risk-Benefit Assessment,Health Risk Assessment,Risks and Benefits,Analysis, Risk,Assessment, Benefit-Risk,Assessment, Health Risk,Assessment, Risk-Benefit,Benefit Risk Assessment,Benefit-Risk Assessments,Benefits and Risks,Health Risk Assessments,Risk Analyses,Risk Assessment, Health,Risk Assessments,Risk Benefit Assessment,Risk-Benefit Assessments
D020521 Stroke A group of pathological conditions characterized by sudden, non-convulsive loss of neurological function due to BRAIN ISCHEMIA or INTRACRANIAL HEMORRHAGES. Stroke is classified by the type of tissue NECROSIS, such as the anatomic location, vasculature involved, etiology, age of the affected individual, and hemorrhagic vs. non-hemorrhagic nature. (From Adams et al., Principles of Neurology, 6th ed, pp777-810) Apoplexy,Cerebral Stroke,Cerebrovascular Accident,Cerebrovascular Apoplexy,Vascular Accident, Brain,CVA (Cerebrovascular Accident),Cerebrovascular Accident, Acute,Cerebrovascular Stroke,Stroke, Acute,Acute Cerebrovascular Accident,Acute Cerebrovascular Accidents,Acute Stroke,Acute Strokes,Apoplexy, Cerebrovascular,Brain Vascular Accident,Brain Vascular Accidents,CVAs (Cerebrovascular Accident),Cerebral Strokes,Cerebrovascular Accidents,Cerebrovascular Accidents, Acute,Cerebrovascular Strokes,Stroke, Cerebral,Stroke, Cerebrovascular,Strokes,Strokes, Acute,Strokes, Cerebral,Strokes, Cerebrovascular,Vascular Accidents, Brain

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