Health Label and Behavioral Feature Prediction Using Bayesian Hierarchical Vector Autoregression Models. 2021

Ethan N Lyon, and Luis H Victor, and Akane Sano

The rising availability and accessibility of data from wearable devices and ubiquitous sensors allow the leveraging of computational methods to address human health and behavioral challenges. In particular, recent works have created time series, interpretable, and generalizable models for predicting patient healthcare outcomes from multidimensional data including expensive self-reported patient data, clinical data, and data from mobile and wearable devices. In this work, we used a Bayesian Hierarchical Vector Autoregression (BHVAR) model to predict behavioral and self-reported health outcomes on college student participants from passively collected data from their smartphones, wearable devices, and environment, as well as their self-reports. We also evaluated how the model performed being trained on 3, 7, 11, and 13 different features including some actionable and modifiable behavioral features. Then, we showed the value of augmenting self-reported datasets with many different types of data by demonstrating that additional inferences can be made with no significant toll on accuracy in comparison to using only self-reported features. Our models proved to be robust despite the greatly increased variable count as the reduced mean squared error (RMSE) of BHVAR over the patient-specific, maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) model was 10.5%, 14.9%, 26.6%, 39.6% in the 3, 7, 11, and 13 variable models respectively. We also obtained patient-level insights from clustering analysis of patient-level coefficients.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D003695 Delivery of Health Care The concept concerned with all aspects of providing and distributing health services to a patient population. Delivery of Dental Care,Health Care,Health Care Delivery,Health Care Systems,Community-Based Distribution,Contraceptive Distribution,Delivery of Healthcare,Dental Care Delivery,Distribution, Non-Clinical,Distribution, Nonclinical,Distributional Activities,Healthcare,Healthcare Delivery,Healthcare Systems,Non-Clinical Distribution,Nonclinical Distribution,Activities, Distributional,Activity, Distributional,Care, Health,Community Based Distribution,Community-Based Distributions,Contraceptive Distributions,Deliveries, Healthcare,Delivery, Dental Care,Delivery, Health Care,Delivery, Healthcare,Distribution, Community-Based,Distribution, Contraceptive,Distribution, Non Clinical,Distributional Activity,Distributions, Community-Based,Distributions, Contraceptive,Distributions, Non-Clinical,Distributions, Nonclinical,Health Care System,Healthcare Deliveries,Healthcare System,Non Clinical Distribution,Non-Clinical Distributions,Nonclinical Distributions,System, Health Care,System, Healthcare,Systems, Health Care,Systems, Healthcare
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000068997 Smartphone A cell phone with advanced computing and connectivity capability built on an operating system. Smart Phone,Smart Phones,Phones, Smart,Smartphones
D000076251 Wearable Electronic Devices Electronic implements worn on the body as an implant or as an accessory. Examples include wearable diagnostic devices, wearable ACTIVITY TRACKERS, wearable INFUSION PUMPS, wearable computing devices, SENSORY AIDS, and electronic pest repellents. Wearable Computer,Electronic Skin,Wearable Devices,Wearable Technology,Computer, Wearable,Device, Wearable,Device, Wearable Electronic,Electronic Device, Wearable,Skin, Electronic,Technology, Wearable,Wearable Computers,Wearable Device,Wearable Electronic Device,Wearable Technologies
D001499 Bayes Theorem A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result. Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes
D016013 Likelihood Functions Functions constructed from a statistical model and a set of observed data which give the probability of that data for various values of the unknown model parameters. Those parameter values that maximize the probability are the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. Likelihood Ratio Test,Maximum Likelihood Estimates,Estimate, Maximum Likelihood,Estimates, Maximum Likelihood,Function, Likelihood,Functions, Likelihood,Likelihood Function,Maximum Likelihood Estimate,Test, Likelihood Ratio

Related Publications

Ethan N Lyon, and Luis H Victor, and Akane Sano
October 1995, Statistics in medicine,
Ethan N Lyon, and Luis H Victor, and Akane Sano
May 2008, Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.),
Ethan N Lyon, and Luis H Victor, and Akane Sano
March 2013, Bayesian analysis,
Ethan N Lyon, and Luis H Victor, and Akane Sano
January 2018, PloS one,
Ethan N Lyon, and Luis H Victor, and Akane Sano
January 2000, Methods in enzymology,
Ethan N Lyon, and Luis H Victor, and Akane Sano
December 2018, JAMA,
Ethan N Lyon, and Luis H Victor, and Akane Sano
January 2021, Journal of applied statistics,
Ethan N Lyon, and Luis H Victor, and Akane Sano
September 2015, NeuroImage,
Ethan N Lyon, and Luis H Victor, and Akane Sano
January 1998, Lifetime data analysis,
Ethan N Lyon, and Luis H Victor, and Akane Sano
July 2009, Ecology letters,
Copied contents to your clipboard!