Prediction and decision making using Bayesian hierarchical models. 1995

D K Stangl
Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences, Terry Sanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0251, USA.

This paper uses Bayesian hierarchical models to analyse multi-centre clinical trial data where the outcome variable of interest is continuous, but not normally distributed, and where censoring has occurred. The goal of such an analysis is the same as for any subgroup analysis, to provide survival estimates for specific subgroups as well as for the population and to provide estimates of the degree of heterogeneity between subgroups. An analysis of the Collaborative Study of Long-Term Maintenance Drug Therapy in Recurrent Affective Illness, a multi-centre clinical trial funded by the National Institute for Mental Health's Pharmacologic Research Branch, serves to illustrate the proposed methodology. A feature of this data set is that one treatment group was withdrawn from medication at the time of randomization. The paper contains comparison of models, one that accounts for the drug washout period through the use of a changepoint model as well as a comparison of results across several choices of prior parameter values. In addition, the paper considers sensitivity to model choice and priors in a decision theory context.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007099 Imipramine The prototypical tricyclic antidepressant. It has been used in major depression, dysthymia, bipolar depression, attention-deficit disorders, agoraphobia, and panic disorders. It has less sedative effect than some other members of this therapeutic group. Imidobenzyle,Imizin,4,4'-Methylenebis(3-hydroxy-2-naphthoic acid)-3-(10,11-dihydro-5H-dibenzo(b,f)azepin-5-yl)-N,N-dimethyl-1-propanamine (1:2),Imipramine Hydrochloride,Imipramine Monohydrochloride,Imipramine Pamoate,Janimine,Melipramine,Norchlorimipramine,Pryleugan,Tofranil
D012008 Recurrence The return of a sign, symptom, or disease after a remission. Recrudescence,Relapse,Recrudescences,Recurrences,Relapses
D003362 Cost-Benefit Analysis A method of comparing the cost of a program with its expected benefits in dollars (or other currency). The benefit-to-cost ratio is a measure of total return expected per unit of money spent. This analysis generally excludes consideration of factors that are not measured ultimately in economic terms. In contrast a cost effectiveness in general compares cost with qualitative outcomes. Cost and Benefit,Cost-Benefit Data,Benefits and Costs,Cost Benefit,Cost Benefit Analysis,Cost-Utility Analysis,Costs and Benefits,Economic Evaluation,Marginal Analysis,Analyses, Cost Benefit,Analysis, Cost Benefit,Analysis, Cost-Benefit,Analysis, Cost-Utility,Analysis, Marginal,Benefit and Cost,Cost Benefit Analyses,Cost Benefit Data,Cost Utility Analysis,Cost-Benefit Analyses,Cost-Utility Analyses,Data, Cost-Benefit,Economic Evaluations,Evaluation, Economic,Marginal Analyses
D003657 Decision Making The process of making a selective intellectual judgment when presented with several complex alternatives consisting of several variables, and usually defining a course of action or an idea. Credit Assignment,Assignment, Credit,Assignments, Credit,Credit Assignments
D003866 Depressive Disorder An affective disorder manifested by either a dysphoric mood or loss of interest or pleasure in usual activities. The mood disturbance is prominent and relatively persistent. Depression, Endogenous,Depression, Neurotic,Depression, Unipolar,Depressive Syndrome,Melancholia,Neurosis, Depressive,Unipolar Depression,Depressions, Endogenous,Depressions, Neurotic,Depressions, Unipolar,Depressive Disorders,Depressive Neuroses,Depressive Neurosis,Depressive Syndromes,Disorder, Depressive,Disorders, Depressive,Endogenous Depression,Endogenous Depressions,Melancholias,Neuroses, Depressive,Neurotic Depression,Neurotic Depressions,Syndrome, Depressive,Syndromes, Depressive,Unipolar Depressions
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000929 Antidepressive Agents, Tricyclic Substances that contain a fused three-ring moiety and are used in the treatment of depression. These drugs block the uptake of norepinephrine and serotonin into axon terminals and may block some subtypes of serotonin, adrenergic, and histamine receptors. However, the mechanism of their antidepressant effects is not clear because the therapeutic effects usually take weeks to develop and may reflect compensatory changes in the central nervous system. Antidepressants, Tricyclic,Tricyclic Antidepressant,Tricyclic Antidepressant Drug,Tricyclic Antidepressive Agent,Tricyclic Antidepressive Agents,Antidepressant Drugs, Tricyclic,Agent, Tricyclic Antidepressive,Agents, Tricyclic Antidepressive,Antidepressant Drug, Tricyclic,Antidepressant, Tricyclic,Antidepressive Agent, Tricyclic,Drug, Tricyclic Antidepressant,Drugs, Tricyclic Antidepressant,Tricyclic Antidepressant Drugs,Tricyclic Antidepressants
D001499 Bayes Theorem A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result. Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes
D012680 Sensitivity and Specificity Binary classification measures to assess test results. Sensitivity or recall rate is the proportion of true positives. Specificity is the probability of correctly determining the absence of a condition. (From Last, Dictionary of Epidemiology, 2d ed) Specificity,Sensitivity,Specificity and Sensitivity
D013997 Time Factors Elements of limited time intervals, contributing to particular results or situations. Time Series,Factor, Time,Time Factor

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