Secular Trends in the Burden of Multiple Myeloma From 1990 to 2019 and Its Projection Until 2044 in China. 2022

Yumei Zhao, and Dongdong Niu, and Enlin Ye, and Jiasheng Huang, and Jia Wang, and Xuefei Hou, and Jiayuan Wu
Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, China.

Multiple myeloma (MM) imposes a heavy burden in China. Understanding the secular trend of MM burden and projecting its future trend could facilitate appropriate public health planning and improve the management of MM. Sex-specific incidence and mortality rates of MM in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. The secular trend of MM burden was analyzed by joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on MM burden and project future trends up to 2044. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MM continued to increase in males. For females, the age-standardized rates were stable in MM incidence and decreased in MM mortality. Males had a higher disease burden of MM than females. Age effects were the most significant risk factor for MM incidence and mortality. Moreover, the risk of MM incidence and mortality increased with increasing time period but decreased with birth cohort in males and females. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MM in China is predicted to be continuously increasing over the next 25 years. The burden of MM in China is expected to continue to increase in the future, with significant sex difference. A comprehensive understanding of the risk characteristics and disease pattern of MM could help develop timely intervention measures to effectively reduce its burden.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D009101 Multiple Myeloma A malignancy of mature PLASMA CELLS engaging in monoclonal immunoglobulin production. It is characterized by hyperglobulinemia, excess Bence-Jones proteins (free monoclonal IMMUNOGLOBULIN LIGHT CHAINS) in the urine, skeletal destruction, bone pain, and fractures. Other features include ANEMIA; HYPERCALCEMIA; and RENAL INSUFFICIENCY. Myeloma, Plasma-Cell,Kahler Disease,Myeloma, Multiple,Myeloma-Multiple,Myelomatosis,Plasma Cell Myeloma,Cell Myeloma, Plasma,Cell Myelomas, Plasma,Disease, Kahler,Multiple Myelomas,Myeloma Multiple,Myeloma, Plasma Cell,Myeloma-Multiples,Myelomas, Multiple,Myelomas, Plasma Cell,Myelomas, Plasma-Cell,Myelomatoses,Plasma Cell Myelomas,Plasma-Cell Myeloma,Plasma-Cell Myelomas
D002681 China A country spanning from central Asia to the Pacific Ocean. Inner Mongolia,Manchuria,People's Republic of China,Sinkiang,Mainland China
D005260 Female Females
D005544 Forecasting The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology. Futurology,Projections and Predictions,Future,Predictions and Projections
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D012307 Risk Factors An aspect of personal behavior or lifestyle, environmental exposure, inborn or inherited characteristic, which, based on epidemiological evidence, is known to be associated with a health-related condition considered important to prevent. Health Correlates,Risk Factor Scores,Risk Scores,Social Risk Factors,Population at Risk,Populations at Risk,Correlates, Health,Factor, Risk,Factor, Social Risk,Factors, Social Risk,Risk Factor,Risk Factor Score,Risk Factor, Social,Risk Factors, Social,Risk Score,Score, Risk,Score, Risk Factor,Social Risk Factor
D014481 United States A country in NORTH AMERICA between CANADA and MEXICO.
D015994 Incidence The number of new cases of a given disease during a given period in a specified population. It also is used for the rate at which new events occur in a defined population. It is differentiated from PREVALENCE, which refers to all cases in the population at a given time. Attack Rate,Cumulative Incidence,Incidence Proportion,Incidence Rate,Person-time Rate,Secondary Attack Rate,Attack Rate, Secondary,Attack Rates,Cumulative Incidences,Incidence Proportions,Incidence Rates,Incidence, Cumulative,Incidences,Person time Rate,Person-time Rates,Proportion, Incidence,Rate, Attack,Rate, Incidence,Rate, Person-time,Rate, Secondary Attack,Secondary Attack Rates

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