Application of machine learning in predicting oil rate decline for Bakken shale oil wells. 2022

Subhrajyoti Bhattacharyya, and Aditya Vyas
Deysarkar Centre of Excellence in Petroleum Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, West Bengal, India. subhrajbhatta@iitkgp.ac.in.

Commercial reservoir simulators are required to solve discretized mass-balance equations. When the reservoir becomes heterogeneous and complex, more grid blocks can be used, which requires detailed and accurate reservoir information, for e.g. porosity, permeability, and other parameters that are not always available in the field. Predicting the EUR (Estimated Ultimate Recovery) and rate decline for a single well can therefore take hours or days, making them computationally expensive and time-consuming. In contrast, decline curve models are a simpler and speedier option because they only require a few variables in the equation that can be easily gathered from the wells' current data. The well data for this study was gathered from the Montana Board of Oil and Gas Conservation's publicly accessible databases. The SEDM (Stretched Exponential Decline Model) decline curve equation variables specifically designed for unconventional reservoirs variables were correlated to the predictor parameters in a random oil field well data set. The study examined the relative influences of several well parameters. The study's novelty comes from developing an innovative machine learning (ML) (random forest (RF)) based model for fast rate-decline and EUR prediction in Bakken Shale oil wells. The successful application of this study relies highly on the availability of good quality and quantity of the dataset.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008903 Minerals Native, inorganic or fossilized organic substances having a definite chemical composition and formed by inorganic reactions. They may occur as individual crystals or may be disseminated in some other mineral or rock. (Grant & Hackh's Chemical Dictionary, 5th ed; McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 4th ed) Mineral
D000069550 Machine Learning A type of ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE that enable COMPUTERS to independently initiate and execute LEARNING when exposed to new data. Transfer Learning,Learning, Machine,Learning, Transfer
D059206 Natural Gas A combustible, gaseous mixture of low-molecular weight PARAFFIN hydrocarbons, generated below the surface of the earth. It contains mostly METHANE and ETHANE with small amounts of PROPANE; BUTANES; and higher hydrocarbons, and sometimes NITROGEN; CARBON DIOXIDE; HYDROGEN SULFIDE; and HELIUM. (from McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed) Gas, Natural,Shale Gas,Gas, Shale
D060986 Water Wells Constructions built to access underground water. Artesian Wells,Artesian Well,Water Well,Well, Artesian,Well, Water,Wells, Artesian,Wells, Water
D061329 Oil and Gas Fields Areas of the earth where hydrocarbon deposits of PETROLEUM and/or NATURAL GAS are located. Gas Fields,Gas Reservoirs,Gas Wells,Oil Fields,Oil Reservoirs,Oil Wells,Oil and Gas Reservoirs,Oil and Gas Wells,Field, Gas,Field, Oil,Fields, Gas,Fields, Oil,Gas Field,Gas Reservoir,Gas Well,Oil Field,Oil Reservoir,Oil Well,Reservoir, Gas,Reservoir, Oil,Reservoirs, Gas,Reservoirs, Oil,Well, Gas,Well, Oil,Wells, Gas,Wells, Oil

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