Economic Analysis of Border Control Policies during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Modelling Study to Inform Cross-Border Travel Policy between Singapore and Thailand. 2023

Celestine Grace Xueting Cai, and Nigel Wei-Han Lim, and Vinh Anh Huynh, and Aparna Ananthakrishnan, and Saudamini Vishwanath Dabak, and Borame Sue Lee Dickens, and Dian Faradiba, and Sarin Kc, and Alec Morton, and Minah Park, and Chayapat Rachatan, and Manit Sittimart, and Hwee-Lin Wee, and Jing Lou, and Yot Teerawattananon
Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore (NUS), 12 Science Drive 2, #10-01, Singapore 117549, Singapore.

With countries progressing towards high COVID-19 vaccination rates, strategies for border reopening are required. This study focuses on Thailand and Singapore, two countries that share significant tourism visitation, to illustrate a framework for optimizing COVID-19 testing and quarantine policies for bilateral travel with a focus on economic recovery. The timeframe is the month of October 2021, when Thailand and Singapore were preparing to reopen borders for bilateral travel. This study was conducted to provide evidence for the border reopening policy decisions. Incremental net benefit (INB) compared to the pre-opening period was quantified through a willingness-to-travel model, a micro-simulation COVID-19 transmission model and an economic model accounting for medical and non-medical costs/benefits. Multiple testing and quarantine policies were examined, and Pareto optimal (PO) policies and the most influential components were identified. The highest possible INB for Thailand is US $125.94 million, under a PO policy with no quarantine but with antigen rapid tests (ARTs) pre-departure and upon arrival to enter both countries. The highest possible INB for Singapore is US $29.78 million, under another PO policy with no quarantine on both sides, no testing to enter Thailand, and ARTs pre-departure and upon arrival to enter Singapore. Tourism receipts and costs/profits of testing and quarantine have greater economic impacts than that from COVID-19 transmission. Provided healthcare systems have sufficient capacity, great economic benefits can be gained for both countries by relaxing border control measures.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000086382 COVID-19 A viral disorder generally characterized by high FEVER; COUGH; DYSPNEA; CHILLS; PERSISTENT TREMOR; MUSCLE PAIN; HEADACHE; SORE THROAT; a new loss of taste and/or smell (see AGEUSIA and ANOSMIA) and other symptoms of a VIRAL PNEUMONIA. In severe cases, a myriad of coagulopathy associated symptoms often correlating with COVID-19 severity is seen (e.g., BLOOD COAGULATION; THROMBOSIS; ACUTE RESPIRATORY DISTRESS SYNDROME; SEIZURES; HEART ATTACK; STROKE; multiple CEREBRAL INFARCTIONS; KIDNEY FAILURE; catastrophic ANTIPHOSPHOLIPID ANTIBODY SYNDROME and/or DISSEMINATED INTRAVASCULAR COAGULATION). In younger patients, rare inflammatory syndromes are sometimes associated with COVID-19 (e.g., atypical KAWASAKI SYNDROME; TOXIC SHOCK SYNDROME; pediatric multisystem inflammatory disease; and CYTOKINE STORM SYNDROME). A coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, in the genus BETACORONAVIRUS is the causative agent. 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease,2019 Novel Coronavirus Infection,2019-nCoV Disease,2019-nCoV Infection,COVID-19 Pandemic,COVID-19 Pandemics,COVID-19 Virus Disease,COVID-19 Virus Infection,Coronavirus Disease 2019,Coronavirus Disease-19,SARS Coronavirus 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infection,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection,COVID19,2019 nCoV Disease,2019 nCoV Infection,2019-nCoV Diseases,2019-nCoV Infections,COVID 19,COVID 19 Pandemic,COVID 19 Virus Disease,COVID 19 Virus Infection,COVID-19 Virus Diseases,COVID-19 Virus Infections,Coronavirus Disease 19,Disease 2019, Coronavirus,Disease, 2019-nCoV,Disease, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, 2019-nCoV,Infection, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, SARS-CoV-2,Pandemic, COVID-19,SARS CoV 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infections,Virus Disease, COVID-19,Virus Infection, COVID-19
D000086663 COVID-19 Vaccines Vaccines or candidate vaccines containing SARS-CoV-2 component antigens, genetic materials, or inactivated SARS-CoV-2 virus, and designed to prevent COVID-19. 2019 Novel Coronavirus Vaccine,2019 Novel Coronavirus Vaccines,2019-nCoV Vaccine,2019-nCoV Vaccines,COVID 19 Vaccine,COVID-19 Vaccine,COVID-19 Virus Vaccine,COVID-19 Virus Vaccines,COVID19 Vaccine,COVID19 Vaccines,COVID19 Virus Vaccine,COVID19 Virus Vaccines,Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccine,Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccines,Coronavirus Disease 2019 Virus Vaccine,Coronavirus Disease 2019 Virus Vaccines,Coronavirus Disease-19 Vaccine,Coronavirus Disease-19 Vaccines,SARS Coronavirus 2 Vaccines,SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine,SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines,SARS2 Vaccine,SARS2 Vaccines,2019 nCoV Vaccine,2019 nCoV Vaccines,COVID 19 Vaccines,COVID 19 Virus Vaccine,COVID 19 Virus Vaccines,Coronavirus Disease 19 Vaccine,Coronavirus Disease 19 Vaccines,SARS CoV 2 Vaccine,SARS CoV 2 Vaccines,Vaccine, 2019-nCoV,Vaccine, COVID 19,Vaccine, COVID-19,Vaccine, COVID-19 Virus,Vaccine, COVID19,Vaccine, COVID19 Virus,Vaccine, Coronavirus Disease-19,Vaccine, SARS-CoV-2,Vaccine, SARS2,Vaccines, 2019-nCoV,Vaccines, COVID-19,Vaccines, COVID-19 Virus,Vaccines, COVID19,Vaccines, COVID19 Virus,Vaccines, Coronavirus Disease-19,Vaccines, SARS-CoV-2,Vaccines, SARS2,Virus Vaccine, COVID-19,Virus Vaccine, COVID19,Virus Vaccines, COVID-19,Virus Vaccines, COVID19
D000086742 COVID-19 Testing Diagnosis of COVID-19 by assaying bodily fluids or tissues for the presence of COVID-19 antibodies, SARS-COV-2 antigens or the VIRAL RNA of SARS-COV-2. 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease Testing,2019 Novel Coronavirus Testing,2019-nCoV Disease Testing,2019-nCoV Infection Testing,2019-nCoV Testing,COVID-19 Diagnostic Testing,COVID-19 Virus Testing,COVID19 Testing,COVID19 Virus Testing,Coronavirus Disease 2019 Testing,Coronavirus Disease-19 Testing,SARS Coronavirus 2 Testing,SARS-CoV-2 Testing,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Testing,2019 nCoV Disease Testing,2019 nCoV Infection Testing,2019 nCoV Testing,2019-nCoV Disease Testings,2019-nCoV Infection Testings,2019-nCoV Testings,COVID 19 Diagnostic Testing,COVID 19 Testing,COVID 19 Virus Testing,COVID-19 Diagnostic Testings,COVID-19 Testings,COVID-19 Virus Testings,COVID19 Testings,COVID19 Virus Testings,Coronavirus Disease 19 Testing,Coronavirus Disease-19 Testings,Diagnostic Testing, COVID-19,Disease Testing, 2019-nCoV,Infection Testing, 2019-nCoV,SARS CoV 2 Testing,SARS-CoV-2 Testings,Testing, 2019-nCoV,Testing, 2019-nCoV Disease,Testing, 2019-nCoV Infection,Testing, COVID-19,Testing, COVID-19 Virus,Testing, COVID19,Testing, COVID19 Virus,Testing, Coronavirus Disease-19,Testing, SARS-CoV-2,Virus Testing, COVID-19,Virus Testing, COVID19
D012846 Singapore Country of islands in Southeastern Asia, islands between Malaysia and Indonesia. The capital is Singapore.
D013785 Thailand Formerly known as Siam, this is a Southeast Asian nation at the center of the Indochina peninsula. Bangkok is the capital city. Kingdom of Thailand,Siam
D014195 Travel MOVEMENT across different GEOGRAPHIC LOCATIONS. Land Travel,Sea Travel,Land Travels,Sea Travels,Travel, Land,Travel, Sea,Travels,Travels, Land,Travels, Sea
D057766 Policy A course or method of action selected to guide and determine present and future decisions. Policies
D058873 Pandemics Epidemics of infectious disease that have spread to many countries, often more than one continent, and usually affecting a large number of people. Pandemic

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