Development and validation of a prediction model for all-cause mortality in maintenance dialysis patients: a multicenter retrospective cohort study. 2024

Jingcan Wu, and Xuehong Li, and Hong Zhang, and Lin Lin, and Man Li, and Gangyi Chen, and Cheng Wang
Department of Nephrology, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, China.

The mortality risk varies considerably among individual dialysis patients. This study aimed to develop a user-friendly predictive model for predicting all-cause mortality among dialysis patients. Retrospective data regarding dialysis patients were obtained from two hospitals. Patients in training cohort (N = 1421) were recruited from the Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, and patients in external validation cohort (N = 429) were recruited from the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine. The follow-up endpoint event was all-cause death. Variables were selected by LASSO-Cox regression, and the model was constructed by Cox regression, which was presented in the form of nomogram and web-based tool. The discrimination and accuracy of the prediction model were assessed using C-indexes and calibration curves, while the clinical value was assessed by decision curve analysis (DCA). The best predictors of 1-, 3-, and 5-year all-cause mortality contained nine independent factors, including age, body mass index (BMI), diabetes mellitus (DM), cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, urine volume, hemoglobin (HGB), albumin (ALB), and pleural effusion (PE). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year C-indexes in the training set (0.840, 0.866, and 0.846, respectively) and validation set (0.746, 0.783, and 0.741, respectively) were consistent with comparable performance. According to the calibration curve, the nomogram predicted survival accurately matched the actual survival rate. The DCA showed the nomogram got more clinical net benefit in both the training and validation sets. The effective and convenient nomogram may help clinicians quantify the risk of mortality in maintenance dialysis patients.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D002318 Cardiovascular Diseases Pathological conditions involving the CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEM including the HEART; the BLOOD VESSELS; or the PERICARDIUM. Adverse Cardiac Event,Cardiac Events,Major Adverse Cardiac Events,Adverse Cardiac Events,Cardiac Event,Cardiac Event, Adverse,Cardiac Events, Adverse,Cardiovascular Disease,Disease, Cardiovascular,Event, Cardiac
D006435 Renal Dialysis Therapy for the insufficient cleansing of the BLOOD by the kidneys based on dialysis and including hemodialysis, PERITONEAL DIALYSIS, and HEMODIAFILTRATION. Dialysis, Extracorporeal,Dialysis, Renal,Extracorporeal Dialysis,Hemodialysis,Dialyses, Extracorporeal,Dialyses, Renal,Extracorporeal Dialyses,Hemodialyses,Renal Dialyses
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000418 Albumins Water-soluble proteins found in egg whites, blood, lymph, and other tissues and fluids. They coagulate upon heating. Albumin
D012189 Retrospective Studies Studies used to test etiologic hypotheses in which inferences about an exposure to putative causal factors are derived from data relating to characteristics of persons under study or to events or experiences in their past. The essential feature is that some of the persons under study have the disease or outcome of interest and their characteristics are compared with those of unaffected persons. Retrospective Study,Studies, Retrospective,Study, Retrospective
D015992 Body Mass Index An indicator of body density as determined by the relationship of BODY WEIGHT to BODY HEIGHT. BMI Quetelet Index,Quetelet's Index,Index, Body Mass,Index, Quetelet,Quetelets Index

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