Prediction of acetaminophen concentrations in overdose patients using a Bayesian pharmacokinetic model. 1994

C A Gentry, and F P Paloucek, and K A Rodvold
Department of Pharmacy Practice, College of Pharmacy, University of Illinois at Chicago 60612.

A pharmacokinetic program using population-based parameter estimates and a Bayesian forecasting model was retrospectively evaluated for predicting acetaminophen serum concentrations in overdose patients. Dynamic disposition factors known to affect acetaminophen disposition (emesis, activated charcoal, N-acetylcysteine, etc.) were included in the program. Twenty six patients who reported an acetaminophen ingestion of at least 70 mg/kg within 24 h of presentation to the hospital and had at least one measured acetaminophen concentration were included. Prediction of initial acetaminophen concentrations using only population-based parameter estimates resulted in a percent mean error (%ME) and percent mean absolute error (%MAE) of 9.3 and 42.2, respectively. Using only the initial concentration as feedback, the Bayesian forecasting model accurately predicted the second acetaminophen concentration (%ME = 4.0, %MAE = 23.6). The Bayesian model also accurately predicted all concentrations within 8 h of the ingestion (%ME = 10.6, %MAE = 24.0). The prediction of concentrations between 2 to 4 h and 4 to 4.5 h after ingestion with only population-based parameter estimates resulted in %ME of 17.0 and 13.2, respectively, and %MAE of 36.5 and 35.1, respectively. Our data suggests that acetaminophen serum concentrations occurring within the first 4.5 h after ingestion can be reliably predicted by the set of population-based parameter estimates evaluated. Once a single acetaminophen concentration is available, the Bayesian forecasting model can accurately predict subsequent concentrations within the first 8 h after an acetaminophen ingestion.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D011237 Predictive Value of Tests In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test. Negative Predictive Value,Positive Predictive Value,Predictive Value Of Test,Predictive Values Of Tests,Negative Predictive Values,Positive Predictive Values,Predictive Value, Negative,Predictive Value, Positive
D012044 Regression Analysis Procedures for finding the mathematical function which best describes the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. In linear regression (see LINEAR MODELS) the relationship is constrained to be a straight line and LEAST-SQUARES ANALYSIS is used to determine the best fit. In logistic regression (see LOGISTIC MODELS) the dependent variable is qualitative rather than continuously variable and LIKELIHOOD FUNCTIONS are used to find the best relationship. In multiple regression, the dependent variable is considered to depend on more than a single independent variable. Regression Diagnostics,Statistical Regression,Analysis, Regression,Analyses, Regression,Diagnostics, Regression,Regression Analyses,Regression, Statistical,Regressions, Statistical,Statistical Regressions
D002648 Child A person 6 to 12 years of age. An individual 2 to 5 years old is CHILD, PRESCHOOL. Children
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000082 Acetaminophen Analgesic antipyretic derivative of acetanilide. It has weak anti-inflammatory properties and is used as a common analgesic, but may cause liver, blood cell, and kidney damage. Acetamidophenol,Hydroxyacetanilide,Paracetamol,APAP,Acamol,Acephen,Acetaco,Acetominophen,Algotropyl,Anacin-3,Datril,N-(4-Hydroxyphenyl)acetanilide,N-Acetyl-p-aminophenol,Panadol,Tylenol,p-Acetamidophenol,p-Hydroxyacetanilide,Anacin 3,Anacin3
D000293 Adolescent A person 13 to 18 years of age. Adolescence,Youth,Adolescents,Adolescents, Female,Adolescents, Male,Teenagers,Teens,Adolescent, Female,Adolescent, Male,Female Adolescent,Female Adolescents,Male Adolescent,Male Adolescents,Teen,Teenager,Youths
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults

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