Prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis. 1993

S T Fan, and E C Lai, and F P Mok, and C M Lo, and S S Zheng, and J Wong
Department of Surgery, University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital.

We conducted a prospective study to validate our previous finding that serum urea and plasma glucose levels on admission could predict the outcome of acute pancreatitis. Forty-two (24%) of 176 patients developed complications related to the attack of acute pancreatitis and were classified as having severe disease. By logistic regression analysis of 17 admission parameters, serum urea and plasma glucose levels were again the factors with independent significance in defining the outcome. By adopting the same cutoff levels as in our previous study (serum urea level greater than 7.4 mmol/L and plasma glucose level greater than 11.0 mmol/L), and the presence of either factor above the cutoff level as indicative of severe disease, the sensitivity of prediction was 79%, specificity 67%, and overall accuracy 70%. All the deaths were correctly predicted by this urea/glucose criteria. The overall accuracy was also found to be comparable with those of the APACHE II (cutoff level greater than 11) and Ranson's scoring systems. We conclude that the simple prognostic criteria for acute pancreatitis were validated; these criteria have the potential to stratify risk rapidly at the time of admission for patients who might benefit from an aggressive interventional protocol.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D010195 Pancreatitis INFLAMMATION of the PANCREAS. Pancreatitis is classified as acute unless there are computed tomographic or endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatographic findings of CHRONIC PANCREATITIS (International Symposium on Acute Pancreatitis, Atlanta, 1992). The two most common forms of acute pancreatitis are ALCOHOLIC PANCREATITIS and gallstone pancreatitis. Acute Edematous Pancreatitis,Acute Pancreatitis,Pancreatic Parenchyma with Edema,Pancreatic Parenchymal Edema,Pancreatitis, Acute,Pancreatitis, Acute Edematous,Peripancreatic Fat Necrosis,Acute Edematous Pancreatitides,Acute Pancreatitides,Edema, Pancreatic Parenchymal,Edematous Pancreatitides, Acute,Edematous Pancreatitis, Acute,Fat Necrosis, Peripancreatic,Necrosis, Peripancreatic Fat,Pancreatic Parenchymal Edemas,Pancreatitides, Acute,Pancreatitides, Acute Edematous,Parenchymal Edema, Pancreatic,Peripancreatic Fat Necroses
D011237 Predictive Value of Tests In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test. Negative Predictive Value,Positive Predictive Value,Predictive Value Of Test,Predictive Values Of Tests,Negative Predictive Values,Positive Predictive Values,Predictive Value, Negative,Predictive Value, Positive
D011446 Prospective Studies Observation of a population for a sufficient number of persons over a sufficient number of years to generate incidence or mortality rates subsequent to the selection of the study group. Prospective Study,Studies, Prospective,Study, Prospective
D001786 Blood Glucose Glucose in blood. Blood Sugar,Glucose, Blood,Sugar, Blood
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000208 Acute Disease Disease having a short and relatively severe course. Acute Diseases,Disease, Acute,Diseases, Acute
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults

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