Biomaterial Database

Power laws governing epidemics in isolated populations. 1996

C J Rhodes, and R M Anderson

Centre for the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, UK. chris.rodes@zoology.oxford.ac.uk

Temporal changes in the incidence of measles virus infection within large urban communities in the developed world have been the focus of much discussion in the context of the identification and analysis of nonlinear and chaotic patterns in biological time series. In contrast, the measles records for small isolated island populations are highly irregular, because of frequent fade-outs of infection, and traditional analysis does not yield useful insight. Here we use measurements of the distribution of epidemic sizes and duration to show that regularities in the dynamics of such systems do become apparent. Specifically, these biological systems are characterized by well-defined power laws in a manner reminiscent of other nonlinear, spatially extended dynamical systems in the physical sciences. We further show that the observed power-law exponents are well described by a simple lattice-based model which reflects the social interaction between individual hosts.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D008457	Measles	A highly contagious infectious disease caused by MORBILLIVIRUS, common among children but also seen in the nonimmune of any age, in which the virus enters the respiratory tract via droplet nuclei and multiplies in the epithelial cells, spreading throughout the MONONUCLEAR PHAGOCYTE SYSTEM.	Rubeola
D008954	Models, Biological	Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.	Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D003718	Denmark	A country in northern Europe, bordering the Baltic Sea and the North Sea. The capital is Copenhagen.	Faeroe Islands,Faroe Islands
D004196	Disease Outbreaks	Sudden increase in the incidence of a disease. The concept includes EPIDEMICS and PANDEMICS.	Outbreaks,Infectious Disease Outbreaks,Disease Outbreak,Disease Outbreak, Infectious,Disease Outbreaks, Infectious,Infectious Disease Outbreak,Outbreak, Disease,Outbreak, Infectious Disease,Outbreaks, Disease,Outbreaks, Infectious Disease
D005843	Geography	The science dealing with the earth and its life, especially the description of land, sea, and air and the distribution of plant and animal life, including humanity and human industries with reference to the mutual relations of these elements. (From Webster, 3d ed)	Factor, Geographic,Factors, Geographic,Geographic Factor,Geographic Factors,Geography, Human,Human Geography
D015233	Models, Statistical	Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc.	Probabilistic Models,Statistical Models,Two-Parameter Models,Model, Statistical,Models, Binomial,Models, Polynomial,Statistical Model,Binomial Model,Binomial Models,Model, Binomial,Model, Polynomial,Model, Probabilistic,Model, Two-Parameter,Models, Probabilistic,Models, Two-Parameter,Polynomial Model,Polynomial Models,Probabilistic Model,Two Parameter Models,Two-Parameter Model