Prognostic scoring systems to predict outcome in peritonitis and intra-abdominal sepsis. 1997

K Bosscha, and K Reijnders, and P F Hulstaert, and A Algra, and C van der Werken
Department of Surgery, University Hospital of Utrecht, The Netherlands.

BACKGROUND Early classification of patients presenting with peritonitis and intra-abdominal sepsis by means of objective scoring systems is desirable to select patients for 'aggressive' surgery and to compare results of different treatment regimens. However, none of the existing scoring systems has fulfilled all expectations. METHODS Evaluation of the value of various scoring systems (Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score, Sepsis Severity Score, Multiple Organ Failure, Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI), Ranson and Imrie) was performed in 50 patients. Additionally, scoring systems were combined to obtain a 'combined score' for the prediction of peritonitis-related in-hospital death. Hazard ratios were calculated in a univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS In the univariate analysis all scoring systems, except Ranson and Imrie, predicted the primary outcome. In the multivariate analysis, only the APACHE II score (hazard ratio 6.7) and the MPI (hazard ratio 9.8) contributed independently to the prediction of outcome. All patients with an APACHE II score of 20 or more and a MPI of 27 or more died in hospital. CONCLUSIONS Combination of the APACHE II and the MPI provides the best scoring system fitting clinical goals.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D010538 Peritonitis INFLAMMATION of the PERITONEUM lining the ABDOMINAL CAVITY as the result of infectious, autoimmune, or chemical processes. Primary peritonitis is due to infection of the PERITONEAL CAVITY via hematogenous or lymphatic spread and without intra-abdominal source. Secondary peritonitis arises from the ABDOMINAL CAVITY itself through RUPTURE or ABSCESS of intra-abdominal organs. Primary Peritonitis,Secondary Peritonitis,Peritonitis, Primary,Peritonitis, Secondary
D011237 Predictive Value of Tests In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test. Negative Predictive Value,Positive Predictive Value,Predictive Value Of Test,Predictive Values Of Tests,Negative Predictive Values,Positive Predictive Values,Predictive Value, Negative,Predictive Value, Positive
D011379 Prognosis A prediction of the probable outcome of a disease based on a individual's condition and the usual course of the disease as seen in similar situations. Prognostic Factor,Prognostic Factors,Factor, Prognostic,Factors, Prognostic,Prognoses
D005260 Female Females
D005500 Follow-Up Studies Studies in which individuals or populations are followed to assess the outcome of exposures, procedures, or effects of a characteristic, e.g., occurrence of disease. Followup Studies,Follow Up Studies,Follow-Up Study,Followup Study,Studies, Follow-Up,Studies, Followup,Study, Follow-Up,Study, Followup
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly

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