Secular trend in disease burden of leukemia and its subtypes in China from 1990 to 2019 and its projection in 25 years. 2023

Dongdong Niu, and Yumei Zhao, and Jia Wang, and Enlin Ye, and Jiasheng Huang, and Jie Liu, and Xueying Huang, and Suru Yue, and Xuefei Hou, and Jiayuan Wu
Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, 524001, Guangdong, China.

Leukemia and its subtypes impose a major public health challenge in China. Identifying the secular trend of leukemia burden is critical to facilitate optimal healthcare planning and improve the management of leukemia. The incidence rates of leukemia from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database according to the following: subtype (acute lymphocytic leukemia [ALL], acute myeloid leukemia [AML], chronic lymphocytic leukemia [CLL], chronic myelogenous leukemia [CML], and other leukemia subtypes), sex, and age group. The average annual percentage changes and relative risks were calculated using joinpoint regression and the age-period-cohort model, respectively. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was also applied to predict the future trend of the incidence of leukemia and its subtypes in the next 25 years. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of leukemia slightly declined in males and females, which is similar to the trend of other leukemia subtypes. However, the four major leukemia subtypes, namely, ALL, AML, CLL, and CML, have been on the rise over the past three decades. The incidence rates of leukemia in children and the elderly were considerably higher than those in other age groups in males and females. Age effects were the most influential risk factor for leukemia incidence. Period effects showed that the risks of leukemia and its subtypes incidence increased with time. For cohort effects, the risks of leukemia and its subtypes were higher among the early-born cohorts compared with the late-born cohorts. The ASIRs of leukemia and its subtypes will continue to increase in the next 25 years. The burden of leukemia and its subtypes is expected to continue to increase in the next 25 years in males and females. A comprehensive understanding of the risk characteristics and disease pattern of leukemia and its subtypes is needed to formulate timely and effective intervention measures to reduce the leukemia burden in China.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D002648 Child A person 6 to 12 years of age. An individual 2 to 5 years old is CHILD, PRESCHOOL. Children
D002681 China A country spanning from central Asia to the Pacific Ocean. Inner Mongolia,Manchuria,People's Republic of China,Sinkiang,Mainland China
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly
D001499 Bayes Theorem A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result. Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes
D012307 Risk Factors An aspect of personal behavior or lifestyle, environmental exposure, inborn or inherited characteristic, which, based on epidemiological evidence, is known to be associated with a health-related condition considered important to prevent. Health Correlates,Risk Factor Scores,Risk Scores,Social Risk Factors,Population at Risk,Populations at Risk,Correlates, Health,Factor, Risk,Factor, Social Risk,Factors, Social Risk,Risk Factor,Risk Factor Score,Risk Factor, Social,Risk Factors, Social,Risk Score,Score, Risk,Score, Risk Factor,Social Risk Factor
D015451 Leukemia, Lymphocytic, Chronic, B-Cell A chronic leukemia characterized by abnormal B-lymphocytes and often generalized lymphadenopathy. In patients presenting predominately with blood and bone marrow involvement it is called chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL); in those predominately with enlarged lymph nodes it is called small lymphocytic lymphoma. These terms represent spectrums of the same disease. B-Cell Leukemia, Chronic,B-Lymphocytic Leukemia, Chronic,Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia,Leukemia, B-Cell, Chronic,Leukemia, Lymphocytic, Chronic,Lymphocytic Leukemia, Chronic, B-Cell,Lymphoma, Small Lymphocytic,B-Cell Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia,B-Cell Malignancy, Low-Grade,Diffuse Well-Differentiated Lymphocytic Lymphoma,Disrupted In B-Cell Malignancy,Leukemia, B Cell, Chronic,Leukemia, Chronic Lymphatic,Leukemia, Chronic Lymphocytic,Leukemia, Chronic Lymphocytic, B-Cell,Leukemia, Lymphoblastic, Chronic,Leukemia, Lymphocytic, Chronic, B Cell,Lymphoblastic Leukemia, Chronic,Lymphocytic Leukemia, Chronic,Lymphocytic Leukemia, Chronic, B Cell,Lymphocytic Lymphoma,Lymphocytic Lymphoma, Diffuse, Well Differentiated,Lymphocytic Lymphoma, Diffuse, Well-Differentiated,Lymphocytic Lymphoma, Well Differentiated,Lymphocytic Lymphoma, Well-Differentiated,Lymphoma, Lymphocytic,Lymphoma, Lymphocytic, Diffuse, Well Differentiated,Lymphoma, Lymphocytic, Diffuse, Well-Differentiated,Lymphoma, Lymphocytic, Well Differentiated,Lymphoma, Lymphocytic, Well-Differentiated,Lymphoma, Lymphoplasmacytoid, CLL,Lymphoma, Small Lymphocytic, Plasmacytoid,Lymphoma, Small-Cell,Lymphoplasmacytoid Lymphoma, CLL,Small-Cell Lymphoma,B Cell Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia,B Cell Leukemia, Chronic,B Cell Malignancy, Low Grade,B Lymphocytic Leukemia, Chronic,B-Cell Leukemias, Chronic,B-Cell Malignancies, Low-Grade,B-Lymphocytic Leukemias, Chronic,CLL Lymphoplasmacytoid Lymphoma,CLL Lymphoplasmacytoid Lymphomas,Chronic B-Cell Leukemia,Chronic B-Cell Leukemias,Chronic B-Lymphocytic Leukemia,Chronic B-Lymphocytic Leukemias,Chronic Lymphatic Leukemia,Chronic Lymphatic Leukemias,Chronic Lymphoblastic Leukemia,Chronic Lymphoblastic Leukemias,Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemias,Diffuse Well Differentiated Lymphocytic Lymphoma,Disrupted In B Cell Malignancy,Leukemia, Chronic B-Cell,Leukemia, Chronic B-Lymphocytic,Leukemias, Chronic B-Cell,Leukemias, Chronic B-Lymphocytic,Leukemias, Chronic Lymphatic,Leukemias, Chronic Lymphoblastic,Low-Grade B-Cell Malignancies,Low-Grade B-Cell Malignancy,Lymphatic Leukemia, Chronic,Lymphatic Leukemias, Chronic,Lymphoblastic Leukemias, Chronic,Lymphocytic Leukemias, Chronic,Lymphocytic Lymphoma, Small,Lymphocytic Lymphomas,Lymphocytic Lymphomas, Small,Lymphocytic Lymphomas, Well-Differentiated,Lymphoma, CLL Lymphoplasmacytoid,Lymphoma, Small Cell,Lymphoma, Well-Differentiated Lymphocytic,Lymphomas, CLL Lymphoplasmacytoid,Lymphomas, Lymphocytic,Lymphomas, Small Lymphocytic,Lymphomas, Small-Cell,Lymphomas, Well-Differentiated Lymphocytic,Lymphoplasmacytoid Lymphomas, CLL,Malignancies, Low-Grade B-Cell,Malignancy, Low-Grade B-Cell,Small Cell Lymphoma,Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma,Small Lymphocytic Lymphomas,Small-Cell Lymphomas,Well-Differentiated Lymphocytic Lymphoma,Well-Differentiated Lymphocytic Lymphomas

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